I'm already excited just thinking about it. The fact is, if you put the greatest heavyweight submission grappler in with one of the greatest MMA fighters in the world, something incredible is bound to happen, and the prospect of Roger Gracie and Josh Barnett bring that to World Victory Road is intriguing.
I'll get into the specifics of the matchup if it is officially announced, but I should say only now that I think that this would be a technical fight even more than Barnett's fight with Yoshida, and Barnett's power would be tested by an opponent almost as strong as he is, with technique that goes even beyond Nogueira's. It's a test of transitioning to MMA for Gracie and a test of the skills Barnett has used for a long time. This fight seems, at least to me, incredibly promising.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Since I'm Having Sort of a Tribute Morning
This is for the Baddest Man on the Planet, Mr. Untouchable Ernesto Hoost!
For those who don't know who Hoost is, he's credited with being the greatest kickboxer in the world and his work in K-1 is incredible. While he's started showing his age recently, his coaching skills have also shown to be very impressive. A single example of his work in the UFC is destructive kickboxer Antoni Hardonk who, while not much of a grappler, has been absolutely destructive standing up.
This one's for Hoost.
For those who don't know who Hoost is, he's credited with being the greatest kickboxer in the world and his work in K-1 is incredible. While he's started showing his age recently, his coaching skills have also shown to be very impressive. A single example of his work in the UFC is destructive kickboxer Antoni Hardonk who, while not much of a grappler, has been absolutely destructive standing up.
This one's for Hoost.
Anderson Silva Tribute
This is a video I found on youtube, a shout-out to the man who seems to be at the top of the middleweight division right now. It's a solid showcase of his abilities, and proof that he's a great fighter. Like we needed more.
Monday, March 3, 2008
A Note on Ludwig vs. Gomi at WVR
Everyone I've talked to seems to think that Gomi is going to win this upcoming fight against Duane Ludwig by falling back on his wrestling and submission skills, and I think that alot of that is a result of people's understanding of Ludwig's standup. I won't go deep into a technical analysis, and I will acknowledge that Ludwig is a very, very good striker, and has been for a long time.
The reality, though, is that Gomi is still going to have an advantage standing up in a way that I don't think alot of people are accounting for, because Duane Ludwig is thinking the exact same thing.
Here's what I'm saying:
If you're Duane Ludwig, you know that your opponent is a better wrestler than you, and a better submission fighter, and a better groundnpounder, you're going to work very, very hard to keep this fight standing up. You're going to anticipate that takedown, and be ready to sprawl, perhaps even more ready to sprawl than to bob and weave when Gomi starts closing the distance.
Gomi hits hard, and I think that if Ludwig is too focussed on the takedown, he's going to run into the same problem that we've seen guys who are predominantly strikers (most notably Mirko CroCop) run into before. Great strikers get beaten by better grapplers standing up because they are so afraid of hitting the mat that they neglect their standup. We saw it in CroCop's fights with Randleman and Gonzaga, and while I'm aware that Ludwig is a different person, it's important to remember that when he's in with that level of grappler, he may very well fall back to that mentality.
For those watching the World Victory Road event this Wednesday, I would like to offer this thought on Gomi's fight: If Gomi comes inside, whether with a shot or just looking for a clinch, and Ludwig starts to back away or prepare to sprawl out, be ready to watch Gomi's hands, because Gomi is the kind of smart fighter who is not going to force a takedown when he can land that knock out punch, and he has the power to put Duane to sleep.
I'm not saying that this fight won't end up on the ground. If Duane comes out ready to brawl, and shows that with the way he carries himself, we may see Gomi go for that clinch or that shot and take this fight to the mat either right off the bat or after feeling Ludwig out for a little while. But if Duane comes in tentative, don't be shocked if you see Gomi knock him out with a big punch, it's something he's got the ability to do, if given the opportunity.
The reality, though, is that Gomi is still going to have an advantage standing up in a way that I don't think alot of people are accounting for, because Duane Ludwig is thinking the exact same thing.
Here's what I'm saying:
If you're Duane Ludwig, you know that your opponent is a better wrestler than you, and a better submission fighter, and a better groundnpounder, you're going to work very, very hard to keep this fight standing up. You're going to anticipate that takedown, and be ready to sprawl, perhaps even more ready to sprawl than to bob and weave when Gomi starts closing the distance.
Gomi hits hard, and I think that if Ludwig is too focussed on the takedown, he's going to run into the same problem that we've seen guys who are predominantly strikers (most notably Mirko CroCop) run into before. Great strikers get beaten by better grapplers standing up because they are so afraid of hitting the mat that they neglect their standup. We saw it in CroCop's fights with Randleman and Gonzaga, and while I'm aware that Ludwig is a different person, it's important to remember that when he's in with that level of grappler, he may very well fall back to that mentality.
For those watching the World Victory Road event this Wednesday, I would like to offer this thought on Gomi's fight: If Gomi comes inside, whether with a shot or just looking for a clinch, and Ludwig starts to back away or prepare to sprawl out, be ready to watch Gomi's hands, because Gomi is the kind of smart fighter who is not going to force a takedown when he can land that knock out punch, and he has the power to put Duane to sleep.
I'm not saying that this fight won't end up on the ground. If Duane comes out ready to brawl, and shows that with the way he carries himself, we may see Gomi go for that clinch or that shot and take this fight to the mat either right off the bat or after feeling Ludwig out for a little while. But if Duane comes in tentative, don't be shocked if you see Gomi knock him out with a big punch, it's something he's got the ability to do, if given the opportunity.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
UFC 82: A Look Ahead
I posted a piece on mmaopinion.com about the fallout from UFC 82 and what I think is going to follow in its wake. I might be right, but probably not about everything. Still, it's definitely an interesting result.
I'll try to post middleweight rankings tomorrow. Good night, and may your dreams be filled with bloody canvases and unconscious egotists.
I'll try to post middleweight rankings tomorrow. Good night, and may your dreams be filled with bloody canvases and unconscious egotists.
Beat the Monkey: Beaten
Okay, so this requires a small explanation.
I set up my program through MMAPlayground.com, a site that is generally quite accomodating. Unfortunately, I was informed earlier this morning that my accounts had been removed, and that I was in danger of being banned from the site. Oh well, I guess I'll have to revert to pen and paper.
I'll post my middleweight rankings later, with a look at Sherdog's pre-UFC 82 rankings and some of the complete and utter wierdness that they seem to post consistantly on their website.
I set up my program through MMAPlayground.com, a site that is generally quite accomodating. Unfortunately, I was informed earlier this morning that my accounts had been removed, and that I was in danger of being banned from the site. Oh well, I guess I'll have to revert to pen and paper.
I'll post my middleweight rankings later, with a look at Sherdog's pre-UFC 82 rankings and some of the complete and utter wierdness that they seem to post consistantly on their website.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Beat The Monkey: A Little Experiment
For those who don't follow the intense world of stock trading (I'm generally one of those people) there was an experiment conducted about 10 years ago that pitted one of the top stock traders in the world against a monkey, and the two ran neck and neck for a very long time. I decided it might be fun to try this with MMA analysis, and see how effective I actually am, or if I suck so much that I get beaten by something that has no awareness of the matchups.
I've decided that, since monkeys are very expensive, I can only afford to play against a quarter, which will (in an ideal world) prove to be right about 50% of the time. Realistically, I have a much higher win percentage that 50%, but the coin might too, and it might be considerably worse (then again, so could I)
In order to make things really interesting, I decided to add another factor, and that is basic numerological analysis, purely analysis based on records. While I tend to analyze styles, there's always a way to look at the numbers. Pick the guy with the most wins, or the fewest losses, and the fewest decisions. I've decided to run a combination of that, but really the basic paper-based scoring system that doesn't look at past matchups, doesn't look at personal history or the styles of the fighters. We'll see how that does.
The scoring for this is going to be done two ways, or more realistically in two tiers. Any fight that has more than three top ten fighters on the card will be in the "Major events" category (so UFC 82, the upcoming World Victory Road Event, that kind of stuff). Any event that has less will go in the "Minor events" category, regardless of the size of the organization that puts it together.
I think that it will be a little more interesting in the "minor events" category, but I tend to think I'm pretty good at picking high-profile fights and the year of the upset has shown that that's not always true.
I'll post the first round of scores after tonight's event (my analysis will be on MMAOpinion.com) and give some thoughts about the future of the project.
I've decided that, since monkeys are very expensive, I can only afford to play against a quarter, which will (in an ideal world) prove to be right about 50% of the time. Realistically, I have a much higher win percentage that 50%, but the coin might too, and it might be considerably worse (then again, so could I)
In order to make things really interesting, I decided to add another factor, and that is basic numerological analysis, purely analysis based on records. While I tend to analyze styles, there's always a way to look at the numbers. Pick the guy with the most wins, or the fewest losses, and the fewest decisions. I've decided to run a combination of that, but really the basic paper-based scoring system that doesn't look at past matchups, doesn't look at personal history or the styles of the fighters. We'll see how that does.
The scoring for this is going to be done two ways, or more realistically in two tiers. Any fight that has more than three top ten fighters on the card will be in the "Major events" category (so UFC 82, the upcoming World Victory Road Event, that kind of stuff). Any event that has less will go in the "Minor events" category, regardless of the size of the organization that puts it together.
I think that it will be a little more interesting in the "minor events" category, but I tend to think I'm pretty good at picking high-profile fights and the year of the upset has shown that that's not always true.
I'll post the first round of scores after tonight's event (my analysis will be on MMAOpinion.com) and give some thoughts about the future of the project.
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