I'm painfully bored right now, and I was surfing through youtube checking out videos and I found this gem. Enjoy.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
The Fall of Boxing: Good for Us, Bad for Them
I don't have a personal vendetta against boxing, but I do have a personal vendetta against any fighter who doesn't really want to win.
If you want to make money, going into the stock market, become an investment banker. Don't fight.
After watching Wladimir Klitchko win a decision over Sergei Ibragimov, I decided it was about time that I pointed out one of the greatest flaws in boxing: that the decision is not just acceptable, but expected. It get's neither in mma. I hope you all enjoy the piece.
It's posted on MMAopinion.com, and thanks to Brandt DeLorenzo (who supplied the great photo).
If you want to make money, going into the stock market, become an investment banker. Don't fight.
After watching Wladimir Klitchko win a decision over Sergei Ibragimov, I decided it was about time that I pointed out one of the greatest flaws in boxing: that the decision is not just acceptable, but expected. It get's neither in mma. I hope you all enjoy the piece.
It's posted on MMAopinion.com, and thanks to Brandt DeLorenzo (who supplied the great photo).
Friday, February 22, 2008
Henderson vs. Silva: Why They Win, and Why They Are Looking at FOTY
For those coming to this for the first time, I will say only that this started as an analysis of Anderson Silva, and the support of the initial part led me to do a second piece about Dan Henderson. The response from that has led me to add the final part, and it's posted here first. (it will be on MMAopinion and UFCscene soon, as well)
For those returning, having read the first two installments, you can skip right to the final piece. I've bolded each of the section headings and thrown in picks and video to make that process easier.
In Rio, The Spider Steps on You
Leading up to the fight with Dan Henderson, I think it’s appropriate that we take a look at what makes the fighters great. I’ll definitely spend a little time talking about the numbers, but I’m going to try and focus on the technical aspect, give you some things to watch about the all-around game and the specifics of the way they fight.
I’ll definitely look at Henderson as we approach fight time, but I think that it’s only appropriate to start with the reigning champion of the UFC’s middleweight division, not just because of his status as champion, but also because of how he has been regarded by professional analysts (most notably the ones that the UFC has had do their “analysis.” (I put it in quotes, because it’s not really analysis as much as it’s hyping the fight)
Anderson Silva is not infallible. He is great, and certainly one of the most devastating fighters of his generation, and it wouldn’t be far fetched to say that he’s one of the greatest users of the traditional vale tudo combination: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai.
There’s alot to be said for the length of Silva’s limbs, because, let’s face it, they’re freakishly disproportionate. His reach has always been his greatest physical weapon, but, just like with a thick, stocky fighter, it’s all about how you use it, and Anderson is certainly among the elite in using his natural weapons to their fullest potential.
Saying Anderson controls distance is like saying Peyton Manning throws the football.
When Anderson Silva decides he wants to stand at range, he uses every strike in his arsenal at full distance. He tends to stick to straight punches, but they are so crisp and so quick that people rarely have the opportunity to get around them, despite the fact that they stay at a very traditional, direct angle.
One of the other things that many of his opponents seem to forget, perhaps not in training for the fight, but certainly when they are in the heat of battle, is that Anderson’s legs are also very long and very quick, and he tosses out kicks with the front and back leg with the same ease most fighters throw out punches. That, above all, is one of the reasons why he is able to control distance so effectively without moving backwards. He uses his hands to make his opponents aware of his attack, and uses his kicks to intimidate them, and control their pace, further once he has kept them from being too close.
Anderson Silva’s distance control is something that we see so rarely in the sport, especially at that level, that the only thing I can think of to relate it to is Tim Sylvia’s standup during his early fights. It’s not just a matter of height and the psychological factor of being taller than your opponent, because Anderson is really not that much taller than his opponents, it’s making your opponent stay on his heels, because as soon as he comes on his toes and starts to move forward, he starts eating those straight punches.
It allows a fighter like Silva to be aggressive and really attack his opponent, knowing that his opponent will have to do alot of work to get around the straight strikes, but there are other reasons why Anderson’s distance control is so effective, and that’s because of his clinch game.
If you get caught in the clinch with Silva, you will get hit in the face, that’s just a given. It has alot to do with the technical control that Silva has over his opponents, his ability to keep his hands inside and use the leverage from his long forearms, but it also has alot to do with the length of his legs. Anderson Silva can knee an opponent in the face without really moving his body backwards to counterbalance the weight or pulling his opponent down, something that traditional thai boxers almost always have to do to get their opponent’s heads in range.
The fact is, Anderson has the balance and the length in his legs to smash his opponents face without compromising his center of gravity, and without exerting way to much force, like we’ve seen fighters do in order to control distance. It’s the kind of quality that I’ve never really seen in a fighter, with the exception of Sylvia, because even the legends of the clinch like Wanderlei, have to use those traditional transitions of balance (like forcing your opponent down or moving your upper body back). Anderson’s abilities in the clinch allow him not just to utilize those knees, but also to transition seamlessly between the clinch and his traditional stance, with minimal recovery time, and not lose any of the attack power in his open range striking.
As we saw in his fight with Travis Lutter, Anderson Silva’s skills are not strictly based in his standup, as many fighters have thought. Rich Franklin and coach George Gurgel (Gurgel is Franklin’s BJJ instructor, a blackbelt in the style, and competes in the UFC’s lightweight division) thought that they might be in good shape if they could take the fight to the ground. Franklin’s wrestling wasn’t sufficient to deal with the Anderson’s balance or clinch game, but even if it was, he probably wouldn’t have done much damage on the ground.
If Franklin almost got caught by Yushin Okami in that fight, there’s a serious possibility that Anderson would have caught him with a submission, especially off the back.
When I say Anderson Silva has a blackbelt, it’s something that is taken for granted, because there is such an abundance of submission fighters in the UFC with blackbelts. Make no mistake, Anderson’s submission game is even more formidable than we saw in his fight with Travis Lutter, or his fight with Nate Marquardt.
Anderson’s reach isn’t just exploited on the feet, but also on the ground, especially in his guard game.
As became very clear against Lutter, Anderson’s lanky physique gives him the opportunity to really work one submission in particular: the triangle choke. It’s not just that he can put it on and lock it in quickly (he can do that, but that’s not his entire game), it’s that he can set that triangle up and keep it on from pretty much anywhere, because of the length of his legs. Even if an opponent is posturing up to escape the triangle, as we saw Lutter doing a few times, his legs give him the opportunity to pull his opponent back down when they can’t pull themselves loose.
The length of his arms also comes into effect, as was clear when he started using them to smash Travis Lutter’s head in. The fact is, no one can really defend the strikes and the submission at the same time, but Anderson’s body allows him to put himself in a position to win matches that way, and he has no problem using it.
As far as a way to beat Anderson Silva’s guard game, it’s not a good idea to play low, and it’s not a good idea to stand up (as he’s very well versed with the upkick, one of the moves that led to his defeat of Lutter). It seems almost necessary to pass the guard as soon as you get the takedown, or revert to very technical BJJ and maintain posture while opening the guard and pinning one of the legs, a feat which will not be easy against a fighter as well versed in jiu-jitsu as Silva is.
There are a few flaws I’ve noticed in Silva’s game, but it’s important to remember that these are only tiny nuances, compared to the laundry list of things that he does better than anybody else.
The first is that he leaves himself very open to footlocks. He likes to throw his legs up after his opponent when he is fighting off of his back, but most opponents are so preoccupied with the up-kick that they rarely try and think about taking one of his feet. Silva’s ability to defend the leglock has never been tested (I will not discredit Ryo Chonan, but I think that if he had landed that any more perfectly on anyone else, it would have gone exactly the same), so it is uncharted waters, but the uncharted waters seem much safer than the charted ones, given that everyone Silva has faced in the Octagon has been, for lack of a better term, completely destroyed.
The other hole in his game is not the one that everyone seems to think it is. It is not that he can be taken down. Obviously, Anderson Silva does not mind fighting off of his back. Obviously, he can take punishment. When I hear Dana White and Joe Rogan talk about a potential chink in Silva’s armor, I cringe, because I know that anyone who winds up on top of the Spider is going to have to deal with a very sophisticated, very well practiced guard game that you can’t deal any serious damage in, because you might overextend one of your arms and get submitted.
The problem is much simpler, but it’s not something that anyone approaches because it’s not the way the modern MMA fighter thinks. Every MMA fighter today, with the exception of Shinya Aoki, believes that in order to get the fight to the ground, you have to use a takedown, which means that if a fighter doesn’t want to be on top, he never has to be. And the problem with this mindset, when one goes in to fight an opponent like Silva or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, is that you overlook a serious possibility, which is making your opponent fight from the top.
There is a stigma on the bottom, because everyone thinks that the guy on the bottom will lose on the judges scorecards, and that’s true alot of the time, but the possibility of Anderson Silva being on top is not as frightening as being caught in one of his triangles as he elbows your brain down into your spinal column.
Making Anderson sit in guard is something that gives an opponent a serious opportunity to exploit what is otherwise Anderson’s greatest attribute. In case my going off on a brief rant has led you to forget what that is, that would be his long limbs.
Anderson Silva’s arms make him a prime target for armbars. The length of his neck makes him a prime target for guillotines from the bottom. His relatively lanky build make him much easier to de-base once one has locked up a triangle. Yet we haven’t seen anyone really try to make him fight from the top since Silva’s fight with Daiju Takase. Takase, for those who don’t know (and since the fight occurred a long time ago in relative obscurity in Japan, I understand if you don’t) won with a triangle choke.
Still, giving Anderson the top position is, like throwing footlocks, uncharted waters. But who wants to go throught the water charted by Leben, Franklin, Marquardt and Lutter anyway?
Anderson can be a victim of his own advantages, I really don’t have any doubt of that. The question is whether or not there is an opponent willing to risk getting punched in the face when they put themselves on their back. Such a fighter has yet to come along, but if they do, it will be interesting to see the reaction they draw, not just from fans, but from other fighters.
Until someone does beat Silva, whether by using the guard or by being more of a wrecking ball than Silva has been proven to be, he will be a force in the UFC middleweight division. While it seems like Dan Henderson has an excellent shot at doing that, Anderson’s skills are still very much a real issue, and his confidence can only be growing as he destroys opponent after opponent in the middleweight division.
Making Dangerous: Why Dan Henderson Wins
As I posted an article on the fighting style of UFC champion Anderson Silva as a lead up to this fight, it’s both fair and necessary to do the same for Pride welterweight champion Dan Henderson. (for those who need the clarification, Pride doesn’t have a 170 pound division, and their welterweight is 185 pounds)
Dan Henderson has been one of the most well respected fighters in the world for a long time, but it is not simply his respectability that has led the UFC to give him two title shots in a row. It’s the fact that he is the only man ever to hold two titles in Pride. This is a look at how he got them, and why he’s been one of the most dominant and physically powerful fighters in two weight classes for years.
The first thing that needs to be acknowledged is that when Dan Henderson fights up in weight, he is still often the more physically powerful fighter, because of something that his opponents and training partners describe as the “gorilla grip.”
Gorilla grip really isn’t doing it justice. In the greco-clinch, Dan Henderson is a vice with legs. He gets a hold of his opponents and just imposes his will. It’s not solely because of his conditioning, but also because of his wrestling ability.
Dan’s clinch is one of the most technical attack styles around, and, like most of his fighting style, he operates it with such aggression and commitment that he’s basically pinning himself to his opponent and working them to the mat, where he basically pins them, a la his Olympic caliber Greco-Roman wrestling, and delivers punishment.
Of all of Dan Henderson’s weapons’, though, there’s one that’s respected more than his wrestling, more than that Olympic experience, because of what it’s done in this sport, and that’s his right hand.
Dan’s not credited with being a great boxer, and he never will be. He doesn’t utilize combinations the way that people think he should and he never really sets his moves up with head movement, the way that a lot of great counterpunchers do.
If any part of his style is to be credited with setting up his right hand, it’s his chin. Rarely do I get the opportunity to watch a fighter as willing to eat a punch as Henderson outside of the heavyweight division, but Henderson is one of the guys who has no problem with mixing it up, and he does it better than anyone else.
Henderson moves forward when he fights, and usually that’s because his opponents are wary of his right hand. I’m not sure if Anderson Silva will show it serious respect in their upcoming fight, but there’s definitely a chance that we will see Henderson move Silva into the cage because of his ability to dominate with his right hand and his clinch game. The combination tends to keep opponent’s on their heels, trying to just throw jabs at Henderson and work combinations.
In 28 fights, Henderson has never been knocked out, and his ability to keep moving forward has a huge psychological effect on his opponent, something that I call the “Mark Hunt effect.”
It’s one thing to know that you are hitting your opponent and that you are doing damage, but when you throw a combination you expect to do damage at a guy and he keeps moving forward, there’s a serious mental flag that goes up. A little siren in the back of your head says “wait, that didn’t hurt this guy.” That flag can be ignored if it only pops up one or two times, but if it goes off enough and a fighter starts to realize it, it can really get to him.
There are plenty of guys who try to recreate that impact by smiling and giving their opponent the little “bring-it-on” wave, but every competant fighter, especially a great standup guy, knows that his opponent is taking notice when he does that, knows that his opponent got woken up a little bit. We saw that understanding in Patrick Cote’s fight with Drew McFedries not to long ago.
It’s something totally different when your opponent doesn’t even look like he noticed, and that’s the kind of chin that only guys like Hunt and Henderson seem to offer.
Henderson attacks constantly, whether with the clinch or from his feet, using his right haymaker. It’s really hard to explain how hard Dan Henderson hits, but Frank Trigg put it better than anyone else when he said that getting hit with Henderson’s right hand will put you out, regardless of where it hits your head, but if you catches you flush, that’s the night. Just ask Wanderlei Silva.
Dan hits like a ton of bricks, and he carries his hand in close to his head, almost as if it’s glued to his cauliflower. This is what may present problems for Silva, as it makes it nearly impossible for a fighter standing orthodox to land a clean shot.
If you want to look at the ways to beat Henderson, there are really a few that have been tested, and I expect that Anderson will try to use them to the best of his ability. There are really two tactics that seem to work the best.
The first is to maintain distance and use some technical striking to avoid the right hand. It’s about not being intimidated by Henderson’s relentless attack and just bobbing and weaving. I expect Anderson to do a lot of that, given that’s what he’s good at. It’s also the ability to really use kicks that really plays a big roll for the guys that beat Dan, because that is what keeps him out of the range he needs to use that right haymaker.
Maintaining that distance will give you the opportunity to win a decision, but in a 25 minute fight, Silva may decide that standing with a guy he’s not going to KO is not really his best option.
The second is to attack him from the guard, but that seems to get harder and harder as Dan’s ground game develops farther from wrestling. Still, it doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to see Anderson pulling out a submission again Henderson, when you consider that Antonio Rogerio Nogueira did it with an armbar when he fought Henderson.
That’s not to say that Henderson’s submission game is bad, but it is his weakest link, and certainly has presented more problems for Henderson than anything else. While he’s worked to shore it up, he’s not at the level of a BJJ blackbelt, and if Anderson can exploit that deficiency, we’ll definitely see some technical groundwork from both fighters.
The secret to beating Henderson on the ground is to not get trapped and not get frustrated. Even Rampage Jackson got a little flustered early in the fight when dealing with Henderson’s raw strength. If Anderson can keep cool and use his jiu-jitsu to create a solid position, instead of getting pinned to the mat by the Greco-Roman skills of Silva, he can use the principle that the Gracie’s have been teaching for years: leverage is greater than strength.
As true as that may be, we can’t forget that Henderson is unrivaled in strength at 185 pounds.
Matchup of the Year
It just doesn't happen often enough; a fight where I am so uncertain about who is going to win that I am flip-flopping about my pick as I am starting to right.
Honestly, I haven't been this unsure about a pick since Fedor vs. CroCop. I've been wrong, but I haven't been unsure.
The fact is, Anderson Silva and Dan Henderson make for a fight that we cannot, with any real certainty, call, and the odds are proof of that. The UFC and Pride Champions are locked even and I doubt that even Wanderlei Silva vs. Rampage Jackson would have been considered this tight of a matchup if it had happened instead of the Henderson fight at the end of last year.
I've already talked about why it is that Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva are forces to be reconned with in the middleweight division, why it is they are both dominant and devastating, and why it is that I so rarely bet against either of them when they are competing in this weight class.
Still, I want to take a second to really look at the dimensions of this matchup, because it's not until you really see how these guys matchup that you see how hard it is for me to make a pick.
Often, just a stylistic advantage can make a choice simple, but this fight offers no such luck.
After all, we have Anderson Silva, who has torn through opponents with mechanical efficiency in his striking, and we have Dan Henderson, who has a chin that has never failed him, even in his fights at 205 pounds and the open water of the heavyweight division. So the question takes us back to the ancient Zen parable: If you take the strongest weapon, and smack it against the hardest dome, what's going to happen.
There's the answer that we've seen from Mark Hunt in his fight with Mirko CroCop, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to compare Hunt's chin to Henderson's yet. (I'm aware that I've done it periodically, but only to illustrate that the man has a very hard head, the question is "how hard?")
I'm certainly ready to call Anderson Silva the Peter Aerts of the UFC middleweight division. He seems to tear through everyone with that vicious set of combinations and tireless attack that I've only ever seen from top K-1 kickboxers like Aerts and his fellow Dutchman Ernesto Hoost. I'll be honest and say that I think that even the guys that we consider aggressive in the MMA world aren't as aggressive as Silva. Wanderlei wasn't, because he had the patience to wait for an opening and bob and weave for minutes at a time. Sure, when he attacked he was devastating and finished every match, but I don't think he's been as aggressive as Anderson has been in Anderson's MMA career.
That said, I think that if we see this fight stay standing through five rounds, it will end very much like the fights we've seen with Hunt in K-1 (namely the three bouts he dropped to Jerome LeBanner and the one he dropped to Hoost, which I certainly recommend to anyone interested in K-1), and not like Hunt's MMA performances (which have been heavily focussed on his submission game).
What that means is that we will see Anderson Silva do serious damage to Dan Henderson, but we will not see the effect on Dan. There will be combinations landed by Silva throughout the fight and eventually the final bell will ring (something that has never happened with Silva in his UFC career).
If this fight hits the ground, this is a different world. We are looking at an incredible wrestler and a BJJ warrior. It is a classic matchups with the next generation spin: that neither of these men are new to each other's world. Both are well versed in wrestling and both are skilled in submissions. The specialties are really only a slight advantage in the reality of things.
If this fight does hit the ground, I am still leaning towards Anderson, but less than I am with the standup, because I'm not sure how Anderson will compete with the freakish strength of Dan Henderson. We are, after all, talking about a guy who controlled Rampage for the first few rounds of their fight, and kept the much larger opponent planted flat on the canvas.
Still, I will give the edge to Silva for a few reasons. The first of which is that I think that his jiu-jitsu is aggressive and gets vastly underrated because people are so tied up with the viceral power of his muay thai. Every time I watch the tape of Anderson's fights with Travis Lutter and Nate Marquardt (guys with very, very well established Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu backgrounds), I'm astounded by how well he makes his style work in mixed martial arts. The use of elbows on an opponent who's resisting the triangle and his ability to just completely destroy Marquardt on the ground makes it hard to believe that Anderson is beatable.
The other is Dan Henderson's history against great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters, and it is really my basis for making this prediction more than anything else.
Henderson has been twice submitted by opponents with superior jiu-jitsu backgrounds. While one of those wins is often attributed to the raw size of current UFC champion and former Pride champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, his skills are not dismissable.
It is also important to not that Henderson was caught in an armbar by Nogueira's brother Antonio Rogerio (yes, they both have the same first name), who, while he competes at 205 pounds, cannot be attributed with a strength advantage, as that is clearly not the case.
It's also worth noting that the Nogueira brothers gave Anderson Silva his blackbelt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. While I make it a point never to make the mistake of confusing the student and teacher (Kurt Pellegrino is, for example, not as good a submission fighter as his instructor, Hermes Franca, and he isn't on 'roids). Still, in this case I have a hard time letting this slip by, while Anderson Silva is a weight class below Rogerio and two below the current UFC champ, I think that this is really an advantage on the ground.
That said, Dan Henderson is very strong and a great wrestler. If he takes this fight to the ground and maintains top position, he may be able to power through Anderson's submission attempts. He may even take a page out of 'Page's book and try some crazy power-bomb slam. I won't call this one for Anderson and say that he has control of all the outs (this isn't BJ Penn vs. Joe Stevenson), but I will say that I'm going with Anderson on this one.
The prediction: Anderson Silva by decision.
The reality: Anything can happen.
For those returning, having read the first two installments, you can skip right to the final piece. I've bolded each of the section headings and thrown in picks and video to make that process easier.
In Rio, The Spider Steps on You
Leading up to the fight with Dan Henderson, I think it’s appropriate that we take a look at what makes the fighters great. I’ll definitely spend a little time talking about the numbers, but I’m going to try and focus on the technical aspect, give you some things to watch about the all-around game and the specifics of the way they fight.
I’ll definitely look at Henderson as we approach fight time, but I think that it’s only appropriate to start with the reigning champion of the UFC’s middleweight division, not just because of his status as champion, but also because of how he has been regarded by professional analysts (most notably the ones that the UFC has had do their “analysis.” (I put it in quotes, because it’s not really analysis as much as it’s hyping the fight)
Anderson Silva is not infallible. He is great, and certainly one of the most devastating fighters of his generation, and it wouldn’t be far fetched to say that he’s one of the greatest users of the traditional vale tudo combination: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai.
There’s alot to be said for the length of Silva’s limbs, because, let’s face it, they’re freakishly disproportionate. His reach has always been his greatest physical weapon, but, just like with a thick, stocky fighter, it’s all about how you use it, and Anderson is certainly among the elite in using his natural weapons to their fullest potential.
Saying Anderson controls distance is like saying Peyton Manning throws the football.
When Anderson Silva decides he wants to stand at range, he uses every strike in his arsenal at full distance. He tends to stick to straight punches, but they are so crisp and so quick that people rarely have the opportunity to get around them, despite the fact that they stay at a very traditional, direct angle.
One of the other things that many of his opponents seem to forget, perhaps not in training for the fight, but certainly when they are in the heat of battle, is that Anderson’s legs are also very long and very quick, and he tosses out kicks with the front and back leg with the same ease most fighters throw out punches. That, above all, is one of the reasons why he is able to control distance so effectively without moving backwards. He uses his hands to make his opponents aware of his attack, and uses his kicks to intimidate them, and control their pace, further once he has kept them from being too close.
Anderson Silva’s distance control is something that we see so rarely in the sport, especially at that level, that the only thing I can think of to relate it to is Tim Sylvia’s standup during his early fights. It’s not just a matter of height and the psychological factor of being taller than your opponent, because Anderson is really not that much taller than his opponents, it’s making your opponent stay on his heels, because as soon as he comes on his toes and starts to move forward, he starts eating those straight punches.
It allows a fighter like Silva to be aggressive and really attack his opponent, knowing that his opponent will have to do alot of work to get around the straight strikes, but there are other reasons why Anderson’s distance control is so effective, and that’s because of his clinch game.
If you get caught in the clinch with Silva, you will get hit in the face, that’s just a given. It has alot to do with the technical control that Silva has over his opponents, his ability to keep his hands inside and use the leverage from his long forearms, but it also has alot to do with the length of his legs. Anderson Silva can knee an opponent in the face without really moving his body backwards to counterbalance the weight or pulling his opponent down, something that traditional thai boxers almost always have to do to get their opponent’s heads in range.
The fact is, Anderson has the balance and the length in his legs to smash his opponents face without compromising his center of gravity, and without exerting way to much force, like we’ve seen fighters do in order to control distance. It’s the kind of quality that I’ve never really seen in a fighter, with the exception of Sylvia, because even the legends of the clinch like Wanderlei, have to use those traditional transitions of balance (like forcing your opponent down or moving your upper body back). Anderson’s abilities in the clinch allow him not just to utilize those knees, but also to transition seamlessly between the clinch and his traditional stance, with minimal recovery time, and not lose any of the attack power in his open range striking.
As we saw in his fight with Travis Lutter, Anderson Silva’s skills are not strictly based in his standup, as many fighters have thought. Rich Franklin and coach George Gurgel (Gurgel is Franklin’s BJJ instructor, a blackbelt in the style, and competes in the UFC’s lightweight division) thought that they might be in good shape if they could take the fight to the ground. Franklin’s wrestling wasn’t sufficient to deal with the Anderson’s balance or clinch game, but even if it was, he probably wouldn’t have done much damage on the ground.
If Franklin almost got caught by Yushin Okami in that fight, there’s a serious possibility that Anderson would have caught him with a submission, especially off the back.
When I say Anderson Silva has a blackbelt, it’s something that is taken for granted, because there is such an abundance of submission fighters in the UFC with blackbelts. Make no mistake, Anderson’s submission game is even more formidable than we saw in his fight with Travis Lutter, or his fight with Nate Marquardt.
Anderson’s reach isn’t just exploited on the feet, but also on the ground, especially in his guard game.
As became very clear against Lutter, Anderson’s lanky physique gives him the opportunity to really work one submission in particular: the triangle choke. It’s not just that he can put it on and lock it in quickly (he can do that, but that’s not his entire game), it’s that he can set that triangle up and keep it on from pretty much anywhere, because of the length of his legs. Even if an opponent is posturing up to escape the triangle, as we saw Lutter doing a few times, his legs give him the opportunity to pull his opponent back down when they can’t pull themselves loose.
The length of his arms also comes into effect, as was clear when he started using them to smash Travis Lutter’s head in. The fact is, no one can really defend the strikes and the submission at the same time, but Anderson’s body allows him to put himself in a position to win matches that way, and he has no problem using it.
As far as a way to beat Anderson Silva’s guard game, it’s not a good idea to play low, and it’s not a good idea to stand up (as he’s very well versed with the upkick, one of the moves that led to his defeat of Lutter). It seems almost necessary to pass the guard as soon as you get the takedown, or revert to very technical BJJ and maintain posture while opening the guard and pinning one of the legs, a feat which will not be easy against a fighter as well versed in jiu-jitsu as Silva is.
There are a few flaws I’ve noticed in Silva’s game, but it’s important to remember that these are only tiny nuances, compared to the laundry list of things that he does better than anybody else.
The first is that he leaves himself very open to footlocks. He likes to throw his legs up after his opponent when he is fighting off of his back, but most opponents are so preoccupied with the up-kick that they rarely try and think about taking one of his feet. Silva’s ability to defend the leglock has never been tested (I will not discredit Ryo Chonan, but I think that if he had landed that any more perfectly on anyone else, it would have gone exactly the same), so it is uncharted waters, but the uncharted waters seem much safer than the charted ones, given that everyone Silva has faced in the Octagon has been, for lack of a better term, completely destroyed.
The other hole in his game is not the one that everyone seems to think it is. It is not that he can be taken down. Obviously, Anderson Silva does not mind fighting off of his back. Obviously, he can take punishment. When I hear Dana White and Joe Rogan talk about a potential chink in Silva’s armor, I cringe, because I know that anyone who winds up on top of the Spider is going to have to deal with a very sophisticated, very well practiced guard game that you can’t deal any serious damage in, because you might overextend one of your arms and get submitted.
The problem is much simpler, but it’s not something that anyone approaches because it’s not the way the modern MMA fighter thinks. Every MMA fighter today, with the exception of Shinya Aoki, believes that in order to get the fight to the ground, you have to use a takedown, which means that if a fighter doesn’t want to be on top, he never has to be. And the problem with this mindset, when one goes in to fight an opponent like Silva or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, is that you overlook a serious possibility, which is making your opponent fight from the top.
There is a stigma on the bottom, because everyone thinks that the guy on the bottom will lose on the judges scorecards, and that’s true alot of the time, but the possibility of Anderson Silva being on top is not as frightening as being caught in one of his triangles as he elbows your brain down into your spinal column.
Making Anderson sit in guard is something that gives an opponent a serious opportunity to exploit what is otherwise Anderson’s greatest attribute. In case my going off on a brief rant has led you to forget what that is, that would be his long limbs.
Anderson Silva’s arms make him a prime target for armbars. The length of his neck makes him a prime target for guillotines from the bottom. His relatively lanky build make him much easier to de-base once one has locked up a triangle. Yet we haven’t seen anyone really try to make him fight from the top since Silva’s fight with Daiju Takase. Takase, for those who don’t know (and since the fight occurred a long time ago in relative obscurity in Japan, I understand if you don’t) won with a triangle choke.
Still, giving Anderson the top position is, like throwing footlocks, uncharted waters. But who wants to go throught the water charted by Leben, Franklin, Marquardt and Lutter anyway?
Anderson can be a victim of his own advantages, I really don’t have any doubt of that. The question is whether or not there is an opponent willing to risk getting punched in the face when they put themselves on their back. Such a fighter has yet to come along, but if they do, it will be interesting to see the reaction they draw, not just from fans, but from other fighters.
Until someone does beat Silva, whether by using the guard or by being more of a wrecking ball than Silva has been proven to be, he will be a force in the UFC middleweight division. While it seems like Dan Henderson has an excellent shot at doing that, Anderson’s skills are still very much a real issue, and his confidence can only be growing as he destroys opponent after opponent in the middleweight division.
Making Dangerous: Why Dan Henderson Wins
As I posted an article on the fighting style of UFC champion Anderson Silva as a lead up to this fight, it’s both fair and necessary to do the same for Pride welterweight champion Dan Henderson. (for those who need the clarification, Pride doesn’t have a 170 pound division, and their welterweight is 185 pounds)
Dan Henderson has been one of the most well respected fighters in the world for a long time, but it is not simply his respectability that has led the UFC to give him two title shots in a row. It’s the fact that he is the only man ever to hold two titles in Pride. This is a look at how he got them, and why he’s been one of the most dominant and physically powerful fighters in two weight classes for years.
The first thing that needs to be acknowledged is that when Dan Henderson fights up in weight, he is still often the more physically powerful fighter, because of something that his opponents and training partners describe as the “gorilla grip.”
Gorilla grip really isn’t doing it justice. In the greco-clinch, Dan Henderson is a vice with legs. He gets a hold of his opponents and just imposes his will. It’s not solely because of his conditioning, but also because of his wrestling ability.
Dan’s clinch is one of the most technical attack styles around, and, like most of his fighting style, he operates it with such aggression and commitment that he’s basically pinning himself to his opponent and working them to the mat, where he basically pins them, a la his Olympic caliber Greco-Roman wrestling, and delivers punishment.
Of all of Dan Henderson’s weapons’, though, there’s one that’s respected more than his wrestling, more than that Olympic experience, because of what it’s done in this sport, and that’s his right hand.
Dan’s not credited with being a great boxer, and he never will be. He doesn’t utilize combinations the way that people think he should and he never really sets his moves up with head movement, the way that a lot of great counterpunchers do.
If any part of his style is to be credited with setting up his right hand, it’s his chin. Rarely do I get the opportunity to watch a fighter as willing to eat a punch as Henderson outside of the heavyweight division, but Henderson is one of the guys who has no problem with mixing it up, and he does it better than anyone else.
Henderson moves forward when he fights, and usually that’s because his opponents are wary of his right hand. I’m not sure if Anderson Silva will show it serious respect in their upcoming fight, but there’s definitely a chance that we will see Henderson move Silva into the cage because of his ability to dominate with his right hand and his clinch game. The combination tends to keep opponent’s on their heels, trying to just throw jabs at Henderson and work combinations.
In 28 fights, Henderson has never been knocked out, and his ability to keep moving forward has a huge psychological effect on his opponent, something that I call the “Mark Hunt effect.”
It’s one thing to know that you are hitting your opponent and that you are doing damage, but when you throw a combination you expect to do damage at a guy and he keeps moving forward, there’s a serious mental flag that goes up. A little siren in the back of your head says “wait, that didn’t hurt this guy.” That flag can be ignored if it only pops up one or two times, but if it goes off enough and a fighter starts to realize it, it can really get to him.
There are plenty of guys who try to recreate that impact by smiling and giving their opponent the little “bring-it-on” wave, but every competant fighter, especially a great standup guy, knows that his opponent is taking notice when he does that, knows that his opponent got woken up a little bit. We saw that understanding in Patrick Cote’s fight with Drew McFedries not to long ago.
It’s something totally different when your opponent doesn’t even look like he noticed, and that’s the kind of chin that only guys like Hunt and Henderson seem to offer.
Henderson attacks constantly, whether with the clinch or from his feet, using his right haymaker. It’s really hard to explain how hard Dan Henderson hits, but Frank Trigg put it better than anyone else when he said that getting hit with Henderson’s right hand will put you out, regardless of where it hits your head, but if you catches you flush, that’s the night. Just ask Wanderlei Silva.
Dan hits like a ton of bricks, and he carries his hand in close to his head, almost as if it’s glued to his cauliflower. This is what may present problems for Silva, as it makes it nearly impossible for a fighter standing orthodox to land a clean shot.
If you want to look at the ways to beat Henderson, there are really a few that have been tested, and I expect that Anderson will try to use them to the best of his ability. There are really two tactics that seem to work the best.
The first is to maintain distance and use some technical striking to avoid the right hand. It’s about not being intimidated by Henderson’s relentless attack and just bobbing and weaving. I expect Anderson to do a lot of that, given that’s what he’s good at. It’s also the ability to really use kicks that really plays a big roll for the guys that beat Dan, because that is what keeps him out of the range he needs to use that right haymaker.
Maintaining that distance will give you the opportunity to win a decision, but in a 25 minute fight, Silva may decide that standing with a guy he’s not going to KO is not really his best option.
The second is to attack him from the guard, but that seems to get harder and harder as Dan’s ground game develops farther from wrestling. Still, it doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to see Anderson pulling out a submission again Henderson, when you consider that Antonio Rogerio Nogueira did it with an armbar when he fought Henderson.
That’s not to say that Henderson’s submission game is bad, but it is his weakest link, and certainly has presented more problems for Henderson than anything else. While he’s worked to shore it up, he’s not at the level of a BJJ blackbelt, and if Anderson can exploit that deficiency, we’ll definitely see some technical groundwork from both fighters.
The secret to beating Henderson on the ground is to not get trapped and not get frustrated. Even Rampage Jackson got a little flustered early in the fight when dealing with Henderson’s raw strength. If Anderson can keep cool and use his jiu-jitsu to create a solid position, instead of getting pinned to the mat by the Greco-Roman skills of Silva, he can use the principle that the Gracie’s have been teaching for years: leverage is greater than strength.
As true as that may be, we can’t forget that Henderson is unrivaled in strength at 185 pounds.
Matchup of the Year
It just doesn't happen often enough; a fight where I am so uncertain about who is going to win that I am flip-flopping about my pick as I am starting to right.
Honestly, I haven't been this unsure about a pick since Fedor vs. CroCop. I've been wrong, but I haven't been unsure.
The fact is, Anderson Silva and Dan Henderson make for a fight that we cannot, with any real certainty, call, and the odds are proof of that. The UFC and Pride Champions are locked even and I doubt that even Wanderlei Silva vs. Rampage Jackson would have been considered this tight of a matchup if it had happened instead of the Henderson fight at the end of last year.
I've already talked about why it is that Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva are forces to be reconned with in the middleweight division, why it is they are both dominant and devastating, and why it is that I so rarely bet against either of them when they are competing in this weight class.
Still, I want to take a second to really look at the dimensions of this matchup, because it's not until you really see how these guys matchup that you see how hard it is for me to make a pick.
Often, just a stylistic advantage can make a choice simple, but this fight offers no such luck.
After all, we have Anderson Silva, who has torn through opponents with mechanical efficiency in his striking, and we have Dan Henderson, who has a chin that has never failed him, even in his fights at 205 pounds and the open water of the heavyweight division. So the question takes us back to the ancient Zen parable: If you take the strongest weapon, and smack it against the hardest dome, what's going to happen.
There's the answer that we've seen from Mark Hunt in his fight with Mirko CroCop, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to compare Hunt's chin to Henderson's yet. (I'm aware that I've done it periodically, but only to illustrate that the man has a very hard head, the question is "how hard?")
I'm certainly ready to call Anderson Silva the Peter Aerts of the UFC middleweight division. He seems to tear through everyone with that vicious set of combinations and tireless attack that I've only ever seen from top K-1 kickboxers like Aerts and his fellow Dutchman Ernesto Hoost. I'll be honest and say that I think that even the guys that we consider aggressive in the MMA world aren't as aggressive as Silva. Wanderlei wasn't, because he had the patience to wait for an opening and bob and weave for minutes at a time. Sure, when he attacked he was devastating and finished every match, but I don't think he's been as aggressive as Anderson has been in Anderson's MMA career.
That said, I think that if we see this fight stay standing through five rounds, it will end very much like the fights we've seen with Hunt in K-1 (namely the three bouts he dropped to Jerome LeBanner and the one he dropped to Hoost, which I certainly recommend to anyone interested in K-1), and not like Hunt's MMA performances (which have been heavily focussed on his submission game).
What that means is that we will see Anderson Silva do serious damage to Dan Henderson, but we will not see the effect on Dan. There will be combinations landed by Silva throughout the fight and eventually the final bell will ring (something that has never happened with Silva in his UFC career).
If this fight hits the ground, this is a different world. We are looking at an incredible wrestler and a BJJ warrior. It is a classic matchups with the next generation spin: that neither of these men are new to each other's world. Both are well versed in wrestling and both are skilled in submissions. The specialties are really only a slight advantage in the reality of things.
If this fight does hit the ground, I am still leaning towards Anderson, but less than I am with the standup, because I'm not sure how Anderson will compete with the freakish strength of Dan Henderson. We are, after all, talking about a guy who controlled Rampage for the first few rounds of their fight, and kept the much larger opponent planted flat on the canvas.
Still, I will give the edge to Silva for a few reasons. The first of which is that I think that his jiu-jitsu is aggressive and gets vastly underrated because people are so tied up with the viceral power of his muay thai. Every time I watch the tape of Anderson's fights with Travis Lutter and Nate Marquardt (guys with very, very well established Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu backgrounds), I'm astounded by how well he makes his style work in mixed martial arts. The use of elbows on an opponent who's resisting the triangle and his ability to just completely destroy Marquardt on the ground makes it hard to believe that Anderson is beatable.
The other is Dan Henderson's history against great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters, and it is really my basis for making this prediction more than anything else.
Henderson has been twice submitted by opponents with superior jiu-jitsu backgrounds. While one of those wins is often attributed to the raw size of current UFC champion and former Pride champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, his skills are not dismissable.
It is also important to not that Henderson was caught in an armbar by Nogueira's brother Antonio Rogerio (yes, they both have the same first name), who, while he competes at 205 pounds, cannot be attributed with a strength advantage, as that is clearly not the case.
It's also worth noting that the Nogueira brothers gave Anderson Silva his blackbelt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. While I make it a point never to make the mistake of confusing the student and teacher (Kurt Pellegrino is, for example, not as good a submission fighter as his instructor, Hermes Franca, and he isn't on 'roids). Still, in this case I have a hard time letting this slip by, while Anderson Silva is a weight class below Rogerio and two below the current UFC champ, I think that this is really an advantage on the ground.
That said, Dan Henderson is very strong and a great wrestler. If he takes this fight to the ground and maintains top position, he may be able to power through Anderson's submission attempts. He may even take a page out of 'Page's book and try some crazy power-bomb slam. I won't call this one for Anderson and say that he has control of all the outs (this isn't BJ Penn vs. Joe Stevenson), but I will say that I'm going with Anderson on this one.
The prediction: Anderson Silva by decision.
The reality: Anything can happen.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
A Little Rickson Gracie Nostalgia For a Saturday Morning
This is one of my favorite videos on youtube, and a reminder of why Rickson was the man when the sport began. While many fans just know Royce for what he did in the UFC, Rickson was the man who ran MMA on two continents. He pushed the new generation of GJJ fighters to prominence in Brazil and brought them overseas to Japan, where he showed how beneficial the style was.
He's definitely a warrior.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Tank Abbott vs. Kimbo Slice: Crazy Shit
It's easy to say that these two guys are just going to punch each other in the face. Neither are going to have any cardio, but it's not going to matter. Still, let's take a real look at the way this is going to go down.
Let me first say that I think Kimbo is a decent brawler, but that I have to say that not only does Tank have twenty more fights on the professional level than Kimbo, he's also got hundreds on the street. If we want to give anyone an experience edge on this fight, it is Tank.
In terms of the way that these guys think, it's always about bringing it outside of the cage, that's always what they're thinking about, but once you step in, it's going to be different than the typical, onesided brawl we've seen from Kimbo.
Tank is in incredible physical condition in this fight. It sounds wierd to say, but he's the trimmest I've ever seen him, and that could mean alot of things, but I don't think it will have any impact on his power, because Tank Abbott hits harder than any man on the planet. Including Chuck Liddell. Including Mirko CroCop. Including Fedor.
He may not hit as consistently as those guys. He may not move as well as those guys. He may not be as good a striker as those guys, but he hits harder than anyone on the planet. After all, Tank put out Cabbage Correirra with one punch, and Cabbage has fought some of the most dangerous strikers on the planet. It says alot for Tank that he is the only one to put Cabbage out with that one shot.
If that shot catches Kimbo, the Slice is going to have to hope that his bushy beard will provide some padding, but I don't think it will help much.
Personally, I wanted to see Kimbo fight Antonio Silva, but even the big Silva couldn't put out Cabbage with one punch, and given that Antonio was almost 350 pounds at the time, that's saying something.
Kimbo is going to step in the ring and find that Tank is not Bo Cantrell, he's not going to fall down pro-wrestling style as soon as he gets hit with a punch. Tank wants to prove himself, and I certainly hope he does.
I won't count Kimbo out of this fight, but I certainly think that he's the underdog. Anything can happen in a brawl, but I think I've got a pretty good idea of how this goes down.
They step in the cage, punch each other in the face and Kimbo falls down. Then Tank gets drunk.
Let me first say that I think Kimbo is a decent brawler, but that I have to say that not only does Tank have twenty more fights on the professional level than Kimbo, he's also got hundreds on the street. If we want to give anyone an experience edge on this fight, it is Tank.
In terms of the way that these guys think, it's always about bringing it outside of the cage, that's always what they're thinking about, but once you step in, it's going to be different than the typical, onesided brawl we've seen from Kimbo.
Tank is in incredible physical condition in this fight. It sounds wierd to say, but he's the trimmest I've ever seen him, and that could mean alot of things, but I don't think it will have any impact on his power, because Tank Abbott hits harder than any man on the planet. Including Chuck Liddell. Including Mirko CroCop. Including Fedor.
He may not hit as consistently as those guys. He may not move as well as those guys. He may not be as good a striker as those guys, but he hits harder than anyone on the planet. After all, Tank put out Cabbage Correirra with one punch, and Cabbage has fought some of the most dangerous strikers on the planet. It says alot for Tank that he is the only one to put Cabbage out with that one shot.
If that shot catches Kimbo, the Slice is going to have to hope that his bushy beard will provide some padding, but I don't think it will help much.
Personally, I wanted to see Kimbo fight Antonio Silva, but even the big Silva couldn't put out Cabbage with one punch, and given that Antonio was almost 350 pounds at the time, that's saying something.
Kimbo is going to step in the ring and find that Tank is not Bo Cantrell, he's not going to fall down pro-wrestling style as soon as he gets hit with a punch. Tank wants to prove himself, and I certainly hope he does.
I won't count Kimbo out of this fight, but I certainly think that he's the underdog. Anything can happen in a brawl, but I think I've got a pretty good idea of how this goes down.
They step in the cage, punch each other in the face and Kimbo falls down. Then Tank gets drunk.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Why I've Been Slow
Sorry, for those who read regularly. I've been working with mmaopinion.com, and they've hired me as their first paid writer.
I'll still be working on this site, and posting articles, but I'll also be around there regularly, putting stuff up. So definitely check it out.
I'll still be working on this site, and posting articles, but I'll also be around there regularly, putting stuff up. So definitely check it out.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Lightheavyweight Rankings
As with my heavyweight rankings, I'm not going to offer reasoning where I don't feel it's needed. This is one of the more complex divisions, as it's been pretty well mixed together since the integration of the UFC and Pride as 205, but I think my rankings are pretty solid, even given the craziness that exists within this division.
1. Quinton Jackson
2. Dan Henderson
3. Lyoto Machida
People will definitely feel as though I have to justify this ranking, but let me start by saying that I think having Keith Jardine ranked as #3 is ridiculous. I am equally upset by the fact that Dean Lister, Houston Alexander (who beat Jardine badly) and Thiago Silva are not ranked, despite having performed much better than the list Sherdog offers. As for ranking Machida at 3 when sherdog doesn't seem to think he's even top 5 material. I'll say that I think his undefeated record is very impressive, while I may not be totally impressed by his win over BJ Penn (something I've talked about before). I see some of his opponents as being serious top guys, especially Sokoudjou and Nakamura, and I feel that he shouldn't be underestimated, as he is one of the most formidable fighters in the division, and far and away the most versatile.
4. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Sokoudjou is a warrior. He has stopped two fighters who are the best in the world at what they do and while his loss to Machida has shaken out some of his mystery, I still think he's one of the most interesting fighters. He has serious athleticism and powerful explosiveness. I know people will dispute this ranking, say that a guy who has been finished recently cannot be this high in the rankings. CroCop didn't drop from the top five after his loss to Gonzaga. Barnett didn't drop after his loss to CroCop. That statement is untrue in regards to the world ranking. It's about losing to a respected opponent, and I feel that Machida is both respected and respectable, as is clear in my ranking of him.
5. Thiago Silva
6. Houston Alexander
This is my greatest problem with Sherdog, and it's one that is perpetual, not just because of this one ranking. They do not respect the up and comers. They need to see it far too often before they acknowledge it as a fighting style and not a fluke (as they did before Sokoudjou's fight with Ricardo Arona, and as they have done with dozens of fighters over the last few years), either that or they fall into a trap of believing it is a fighting style when it's an act of fight-specific planning (as they did with CroCop and Gonzaga going into the Couture fight, thinking Gonzaga's striking would be overwhelming). Alexander has been proven. Jardine is now considered a legitimate fighter (and is ranked 3 by Sherdog), but Alexander destroyed him. Alexander is an explosive fighter, as is Silva. These are not guys who bring one solid performance. I am severely disappointed that Thiago Silva is not the next 205 pound contender, but when he is (I don't personally see it as a matter of "if") he will get the opportunity to prove that his viceral style of striking is the real deal, and not just some fluke. Alexander will continue to do the same.
7. Chuck Liddell
8. Keith Jardine
It's clear that I don't care that much that Jardine beat Liddell. The fact is, Jardine has won two fights, and that is the basis most people see to put him in the top 5. That is stupid. He beat Liddell by split decision (meaning one judge gave the other fight to Liddell), but Liddell has a history in this division and has finished more than one opponent, unlike Jardine. I think it's a great disrespect to Liddell to have him ranked so much lower, or even lower at all, that Jardine, given the clear differences in their record and the fact that Jardine barely won that fight. While I think Jardine is higher on the lightheavyweight ladder within the UFC, I think that Liddell deserves a higher ranking.
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Mauricio Rua
I am not sure that I really want Rua to be ranked 10, and I almost put Wanderlei Silva in that spot instead, but I am taking into account the fact that, not long ago, Rua was ranked one. If he can wean himself off of his dependence on the Pride rules, he will be fine, otherwise, he will be in trouble, and may be dropped from the rankings altogether.
1. Quinton Jackson
2. Dan Henderson
3. Lyoto Machida
People will definitely feel as though I have to justify this ranking, but let me start by saying that I think having Keith Jardine ranked as #3 is ridiculous. I am equally upset by the fact that Dean Lister, Houston Alexander (who beat Jardine badly) and Thiago Silva are not ranked, despite having performed much better than the list Sherdog offers. As for ranking Machida at 3 when sherdog doesn't seem to think he's even top 5 material. I'll say that I think his undefeated record is very impressive, while I may not be totally impressed by his win over BJ Penn (something I've talked about before). I see some of his opponents as being serious top guys, especially Sokoudjou and Nakamura, and I feel that he shouldn't be underestimated, as he is one of the most formidable fighters in the division, and far and away the most versatile.
4. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Sokoudjou is a warrior. He has stopped two fighters who are the best in the world at what they do and while his loss to Machida has shaken out some of his mystery, I still think he's one of the most interesting fighters. He has serious athleticism and powerful explosiveness. I know people will dispute this ranking, say that a guy who has been finished recently cannot be this high in the rankings. CroCop didn't drop from the top five after his loss to Gonzaga. Barnett didn't drop after his loss to CroCop. That statement is untrue in regards to the world ranking. It's about losing to a respected opponent, and I feel that Machida is both respected and respectable, as is clear in my ranking of him.
5. Thiago Silva
6. Houston Alexander
This is my greatest problem with Sherdog, and it's one that is perpetual, not just because of this one ranking. They do not respect the up and comers. They need to see it far too often before they acknowledge it as a fighting style and not a fluke (as they did before Sokoudjou's fight with Ricardo Arona, and as they have done with dozens of fighters over the last few years), either that or they fall into a trap of believing it is a fighting style when it's an act of fight-specific planning (as they did with CroCop and Gonzaga going into the Couture fight, thinking Gonzaga's striking would be overwhelming). Alexander has been proven. Jardine is now considered a legitimate fighter (and is ranked 3 by Sherdog), but Alexander destroyed him. Alexander is an explosive fighter, as is Silva. These are not guys who bring one solid performance. I am severely disappointed that Thiago Silva is not the next 205 pound contender, but when he is (I don't personally see it as a matter of "if") he will get the opportunity to prove that his viceral style of striking is the real deal, and not just some fluke. Alexander will continue to do the same.
7. Chuck Liddell
8. Keith Jardine
It's clear that I don't care that much that Jardine beat Liddell. The fact is, Jardine has won two fights, and that is the basis most people see to put him in the top 5. That is stupid. He beat Liddell by split decision (meaning one judge gave the other fight to Liddell), but Liddell has a history in this division and has finished more than one opponent, unlike Jardine. I think it's a great disrespect to Liddell to have him ranked so much lower, or even lower at all, that Jardine, given the clear differences in their record and the fact that Jardine barely won that fight. While I think Jardine is higher on the lightheavyweight ladder within the UFC, I think that Liddell deserves a higher ranking.
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Mauricio Rua
I am not sure that I really want Rua to be ranked 10, and I almost put Wanderlei Silva in that spot instead, but I am taking into account the fact that, not long ago, Rua was ranked one. If he can wean himself off of his dependence on the Pride rules, he will be fine, otherwise, he will be in trouble, and may be dropped from the rankings altogether.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Rankings: Just Another Problem I Have With Sherdog
I have lots of issues with the site, and have no problem listing them at length, but their ranking process always confuses me, because so often they seem illogical. I don't agree that a fighter should be removed for inactivity in his weight class, though general inactivity I can understand. It's really just an opinional difference, but it seems strange that Matt Lindland, the best 185 pound fighters in the world, is removed from their rankings because he has had to go up weight classes to look for competition.
Here are my heavyweight rankings (I'll add more as this week goes on). I've offered clarification where I feel its necessary, though there are things (like putting Fedor at #1 among the big men) that I figure you probably have a good handle on.
Heavyweight
1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3. Randy Couture
My logic in ranking Nogueira at 2 and Couture at three is based primarily on their performances against Tim Sylvia. Nogueira finished him and Couture, however, I feel it's also important to note that Nogueira has fought a much greater volume of top ten opponents and has done much better against them.
4. Josh Barnett
I'll be honest, I think that the fact that Barnett is not on Sherdog's rankings is fucking ridiculous. Usually I'd put it more eloquently than that, but I think there's really no other way to word my frustration. I respect Barnett as a fighter and don't hold him on a pedestal in the least, and I'm just as frustrated as anyone that he hasn't fought since the buyout, and his imminent return on the Sengoku card will really dictate where I think he falls in the new, scattered heavyweight division. that said, I refuse to rank guys who have much less experience and credibility higher than Barnett, because doing that is ridiculous.
5. Andrei Arlovski
6. Fabricio Werdum
7. Tim Sylvia
My reasoning for ranking Arlovski and Werdum ahead of Sylvia is simple. Werdum has been impressive recently, as has Arlovski, though not in his last fight. Sylvia gets ranked very highly because he beats opponents he should beat, but that's not enough for me to call him a top 5 heavyweight. If Sylvia had really shown up in past fights and I had reason to regard the fight with Nogueira as an anomaly, I would do that, but Sylvia doesn't finish people, and he doesn't even really impress when he sends the fight to the judges. The fact that he is ranked so high by groups like Sherdog really just emphasizes how much crap we are willing to put up with from the former champ before we start questioning his work ethic.
8. Cheick Kongo
9. Gabriel Gonzaga
There are those who are going to wonder why Gonzaga is ranked lower than Kongo, given that Gonzaga finished CroCop and the Frenchman did not. The fact is, Gonzaga has been absolutely destroyed in his last two fights. While there has been alot of talk about the quality of his win over Mirko, it is clear that he is not capable of creating a similarly brilliant performance unless it is fed to him on a one-dimensional platter similar to the Croatian, or a less famous fight like it was in his initial wins over Fabiano Scherner and Carmello Marerro. Kongo may be one dimensional, but he has shown that he can beat a far more diverse level of opponent and, at the very least, has shown growth in his skill set over his last few fights. This is something I have not seen from Gonzaga and, until I do, I will consider Kongo higher, not only in the UFC ladder, but in the world rankings as well
10. Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic
In case there is any question of why I included Mirko instead of Ben Rothwell, I will say that I think it's impossible to call Rothwell a top ten fighter when he can't finish Ricco Rodriguez. While I will not dispute the dominance that Rodriguez once had as a fighter, and as one of the greatest groundnpounders the sport has ever seen, I will say that he is not the same fighter, and the fact that Rothwell cannot finish him is disappointing, given that Rodriguez has the cardio of a sumo wrestler (and the physique to match). CroCop may have two painful losses, but I will keep him on the rankings for the same reason I keep Gonzaga on, because he has done incredible things recently and needs only to get back on track. Rothwell still needs to figure out where the track is. As for Rothwell's other wins, people seem to believe that they are extraordinarily impressive, and that's not true. His record is a veritable "Who's that?" of modern MMA, but what can you expect from an IFL division that doesn't really have the finances to get him an awesome opponent.
Those are my thoughts on the current heavyweight divison. I will mention, because I think it's important, that I think both Jeff Monson and Mark Hunt could be on this list, and I considered putting them both ahead of Gonzaga and CroCop. I will probably go back and forth on the issue, but I'd like to see if Hunt is continuing to improve, as he has been over the last few years, and I want to see if Monson has a strong showing against Fedor (as I think that Monson is probably the toughest matchup, stylistically, for Fedor), I don't think he will win, but I think he has the potential to make that a very, very interesting fight, and if he does I will consider him a top ten heavyweight, perhaps even more so than most of the UFC's current top contenders.
Here are my heavyweight rankings (I'll add more as this week goes on). I've offered clarification where I feel its necessary, though there are things (like putting Fedor at #1 among the big men) that I figure you probably have a good handle on.
Heavyweight
1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3. Randy Couture
My logic in ranking Nogueira at 2 and Couture at three is based primarily on their performances against Tim Sylvia. Nogueira finished him and Couture, however, I feel it's also important to note that Nogueira has fought a much greater volume of top ten opponents and has done much better against them.
4. Josh Barnett
I'll be honest, I think that the fact that Barnett is not on Sherdog's rankings is fucking ridiculous. Usually I'd put it more eloquently than that, but I think there's really no other way to word my frustration. I respect Barnett as a fighter and don't hold him on a pedestal in the least, and I'm just as frustrated as anyone that he hasn't fought since the buyout, and his imminent return on the Sengoku card will really dictate where I think he falls in the new, scattered heavyweight division. that said, I refuse to rank guys who have much less experience and credibility higher than Barnett, because doing that is ridiculous.
5. Andrei Arlovski
6. Fabricio Werdum
7. Tim Sylvia
My reasoning for ranking Arlovski and Werdum ahead of Sylvia is simple. Werdum has been impressive recently, as has Arlovski, though not in his last fight. Sylvia gets ranked very highly because he beats opponents he should beat, but that's not enough for me to call him a top 5 heavyweight. If Sylvia had really shown up in past fights and I had reason to regard the fight with Nogueira as an anomaly, I would do that, but Sylvia doesn't finish people, and he doesn't even really impress when he sends the fight to the judges. The fact that he is ranked so high by groups like Sherdog really just emphasizes how much crap we are willing to put up with from the former champ before we start questioning his work ethic.
8. Cheick Kongo
9. Gabriel Gonzaga
There are those who are going to wonder why Gonzaga is ranked lower than Kongo, given that Gonzaga finished CroCop and the Frenchman did not. The fact is, Gonzaga has been absolutely destroyed in his last two fights. While there has been alot of talk about the quality of his win over Mirko, it is clear that he is not capable of creating a similarly brilliant performance unless it is fed to him on a one-dimensional platter similar to the Croatian, or a less famous fight like it was in his initial wins over Fabiano Scherner and Carmello Marerro. Kongo may be one dimensional, but he has shown that he can beat a far more diverse level of opponent and, at the very least, has shown growth in his skill set over his last few fights. This is something I have not seen from Gonzaga and, until I do, I will consider Kongo higher, not only in the UFC ladder, but in the world rankings as well
10. Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic
In case there is any question of why I included Mirko instead of Ben Rothwell, I will say that I think it's impossible to call Rothwell a top ten fighter when he can't finish Ricco Rodriguez. While I will not dispute the dominance that Rodriguez once had as a fighter, and as one of the greatest groundnpounders the sport has ever seen, I will say that he is not the same fighter, and the fact that Rothwell cannot finish him is disappointing, given that Rodriguez has the cardio of a sumo wrestler (and the physique to match). CroCop may have two painful losses, but I will keep him on the rankings for the same reason I keep Gonzaga on, because he has done incredible things recently and needs only to get back on track. Rothwell still needs to figure out where the track is. As for Rothwell's other wins, people seem to believe that they are extraordinarily impressive, and that's not true. His record is a veritable "Who's that?" of modern MMA, but what can you expect from an IFL division that doesn't really have the finances to get him an awesome opponent.
Those are my thoughts on the current heavyweight divison. I will mention, because I think it's important, that I think both Jeff Monson and Mark Hunt could be on this list, and I considered putting them both ahead of Gonzaga and CroCop. I will probably go back and forth on the issue, but I'd like to see if Hunt is continuing to improve, as he has been over the last few years, and I want to see if Monson has a strong showing against Fedor (as I think that Monson is probably the toughest matchup, stylistically, for Fedor), I don't think he will win, but I think he has the potential to make that a very, very interesting fight, and if he does I will consider him a top ten heavyweight, perhaps even more so than most of the UFC's current top contenders.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
The Fate and Future of Randy "The Natural" Couture
There are many fighters who get billed as being more skilled than Randy Couture, many who people believe would hand him his ass if they ever stepped in a cage or a ring, but there are few fighters that stir conversation the way that Randy does.
It's been an issue of alot of speculation, since no one seems to offer substantial information on what is actually happening, but Randy's contract with the UFC is, supposedly, terminated.This makes for teh interesting possibility of a matchup between the 43 year old, 5 time UFC champion and former Pride Heavyweight champion and #1 ranked heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko.
Emelianenko and Couture have both sounded excited in recent interviews, as the prospect of a matchup between the UFC hall-of-famer (the only man in the hall who's really at the top of his game) and the greatest heavyweight of this generation.
Many critics dispute Emelianenko's #1 ranking and say that he doesn't fight enough, and he needs more top tier opponents in M-1, and there's little doubt that a win over Couture would shut them up for at least a little while.
Still, the UFC has yet to take down the listing of Couture as their heavyweight champion, and if you go to the UFC website and click the title holders link, Couture's the first man you will see. Whether this is just a failure to update the website or the UFC's way of saying that they still believe Couture is under a contractual obligation, I'm not sure, and I don't think anyone other than Dana White and the rest of the brass really has much of an idea.
That said, I think that we need some information, because it is unfair that the UFC should insist on keeping one of the worlds top heavyweights in perpetual limbo, though they've been doing it with Arlovski's contract negotiations for a long time, so I'm not really sure.
The future of Randy Couture is definitely a subject of alot of interest to fans hoping to see solid fights in this heavyweight division. The most we can do right now is sit, wait and watch to see what has happened and what will happen.
It's been an issue of alot of speculation, since no one seems to offer substantial information on what is actually happening, but Randy's contract with the UFC is, supposedly, terminated.This makes for teh interesting possibility of a matchup between the 43 year old, 5 time UFC champion and former Pride Heavyweight champion and #1 ranked heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko.
Emelianenko and Couture have both sounded excited in recent interviews, as the prospect of a matchup between the UFC hall-of-famer (the only man in the hall who's really at the top of his game) and the greatest heavyweight of this generation.
Many critics dispute Emelianenko's #1 ranking and say that he doesn't fight enough, and he needs more top tier opponents in M-1, and there's little doubt that a win over Couture would shut them up for at least a little while.
Still, the UFC has yet to take down the listing of Couture as their heavyweight champion, and if you go to the UFC website and click the title holders link, Couture's the first man you will see. Whether this is just a failure to update the website or the UFC's way of saying that they still believe Couture is under a contractual obligation, I'm not sure, and I don't think anyone other than Dana White and the rest of the brass really has much of an idea.
That said, I think that we need some information, because it is unfair that the UFC should insist on keeping one of the worlds top heavyweights in perpetual limbo, though they've been doing it with Arlovski's contract negotiations for a long time, so I'm not really sure.
The future of Randy Couture is definitely a subject of alot of interest to fans hoping to see solid fights in this heavyweight division. The most we can do right now is sit, wait and watch to see what has happened and what will happen.
Monday, February 4, 2008
A Note Of Optimism: UFC 82, Sengoku and the Second Coming of the Big Men
My disappoint with the big guys in this division is something that I'm pretty honest about. The fact is, they either haven't been fighting well, or they haven't been fighting at all, and that's really not something that should be coming from the men this sport was built on.
In light of UFC 81, though, we are starting to see that the downplayed expectations of the division may be getting them to fight harder and put on a better show.
The last card featured the big heavyweight matchups between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir and the title fight between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Tim Sylvia. While both were expected to be terrible by the masses, both proved exciting, with Mir pulling out a win in 1:30 against his clearly submission-retarded opponent and Nogueira catching Sylvia in a guillotine that shocked alot of fans, myself included, who didn't think this fight would end with a big sub.
There is one more fight, though, that I've been looking forward to for some time, and it involves the man who is, in my opinion, far and away the UFC's most exciting heavyweight striker, though his grappling has been notoriously lackluster.
Cheick Kongo and Heath Herring are getting set to square off at UFC 82 as the co-main event with Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva (which is definitely an FOTY candidate in my opinion if both guys bring their A game). Kongo vs Herring isn't just a battle of old school vs new school, and it's not just a battle of styles where one guy is going to swing for the fences and the other is going to try and take this fight to the ground.
Kongo promises to bring the European kickboxing that we've seen him throw out there in every fight, a style reminiscent of the top tier K-1 fighters, not the big single strike style that we've seen from more modern fighters like Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic.
The Frenchmen's kickboxing is some of the best I've seen in the division in a long time, and his size and athleticism only make it that much more impressive that he has developed such extraordinary technical prowess without just trying to fall back to his physical advantages, like we've seen some of the bigger, stronger fighters do.
Herring, on the other hand, is about as well rounded as they come. While he's generally considered a striker, he has a solid ground game and good wrestling. There's definitely a chance that if he ends up in trouble, he will try and take the fight to the ground where he'll look for his experience to give him an edge.
It's going to be a fight, no matter where it ends up. I personally believe that Kongo gets alot of grief for his split decision loss to Marrero, where he showcased a less than perfect ground game, and that has led to a lot of stigma directed towards his ground skills, but I'm not sure how much of a problem that will actually be. But if anyone can take advantage of it, it will be an experienced fighter like Heath Herring.
There's another big heavyweight matchup that has been recently announced that I'm already gearing up for, and that's Josh Barnett vs. Hidehiko Yoshida, which has been put on the main event of the Sengoku card.
Barnett is a world class grappler, with one of the most aggressive submission games and probably the most versatile submission arsenal in the division, and the only comparable submission fighters are Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Jeff Monson. Barnett is a wrestling machine with size and power to muscle in submissions that most people would just give up on.
Yoshida is a technical judo warrior with an Olympic gold medal under his belt, and while he's had alot of trouble developing substantial standup, there's no doubt that his judo is solid, and if this fight ends up on the ground, he could make it interesting for Barnett. While Yoshida isn't quite as muscular as his American opposition, he's not a lot smaller, and one of Yoshida's protoge's, Kazuhiro Nakamura, gave Barnett some trouble, escaping from numerous dangerous positions.
I think Barnett is a fantastic fighter and, like many of the mainstream guys, I'll pick him to take this one, but I'm not going to count Yoshida out. He deserves respect as a fighter who can perform under pressure and as a guy who has no problem being the underdog. He hasn't coped well with big, powerful wrestlers in the past, but Barnett's a very different fighter than Rulon Gardner, so we'll see the matchup when the time comes.
It's going to be an interesting few months, and I'm definitely looking forward to it.
In light of UFC 81, though, we are starting to see that the downplayed expectations of the division may be getting them to fight harder and put on a better show.
The last card featured the big heavyweight matchups between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir and the title fight between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Tim Sylvia. While both were expected to be terrible by the masses, both proved exciting, with Mir pulling out a win in 1:30 against his clearly submission-retarded opponent and Nogueira catching Sylvia in a guillotine that shocked alot of fans, myself included, who didn't think this fight would end with a big sub.
There is one more fight, though, that I've been looking forward to for some time, and it involves the man who is, in my opinion, far and away the UFC's most exciting heavyweight striker, though his grappling has been notoriously lackluster.
Cheick Kongo and Heath Herring are getting set to square off at UFC 82 as the co-main event with Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva (which is definitely an FOTY candidate in my opinion if both guys bring their A game). Kongo vs Herring isn't just a battle of old school vs new school, and it's not just a battle of styles where one guy is going to swing for the fences and the other is going to try and take this fight to the ground.
Kongo promises to bring the European kickboxing that we've seen him throw out there in every fight, a style reminiscent of the top tier K-1 fighters, not the big single strike style that we've seen from more modern fighters like Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic.
The Frenchmen's kickboxing is some of the best I've seen in the division in a long time, and his size and athleticism only make it that much more impressive that he has developed such extraordinary technical prowess without just trying to fall back to his physical advantages, like we've seen some of the bigger, stronger fighters do.
Herring, on the other hand, is about as well rounded as they come. While he's generally considered a striker, he has a solid ground game and good wrestling. There's definitely a chance that if he ends up in trouble, he will try and take the fight to the ground where he'll look for his experience to give him an edge.
It's going to be a fight, no matter where it ends up. I personally believe that Kongo gets alot of grief for his split decision loss to Marrero, where he showcased a less than perfect ground game, and that has led to a lot of stigma directed towards his ground skills, but I'm not sure how much of a problem that will actually be. But if anyone can take advantage of it, it will be an experienced fighter like Heath Herring.
There's another big heavyweight matchup that has been recently announced that I'm already gearing up for, and that's Josh Barnett vs. Hidehiko Yoshida, which has been put on the main event of the Sengoku card.
Barnett is a world class grappler, with one of the most aggressive submission games and probably the most versatile submission arsenal in the division, and the only comparable submission fighters are Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Jeff Monson. Barnett is a wrestling machine with size and power to muscle in submissions that most people would just give up on.
Yoshida is a technical judo warrior with an Olympic gold medal under his belt, and while he's had alot of trouble developing substantial standup, there's no doubt that his judo is solid, and if this fight ends up on the ground, he could make it interesting for Barnett. While Yoshida isn't quite as muscular as his American opposition, he's not a lot smaller, and one of Yoshida's protoge's, Kazuhiro Nakamura, gave Barnett some trouble, escaping from numerous dangerous positions.
I think Barnett is a fantastic fighter and, like many of the mainstream guys, I'll pick him to take this one, but I'm not going to count Yoshida out. He deserves respect as a fighter who can perform under pressure and as a guy who has no problem being the underdog. He hasn't coped well with big, powerful wrestlers in the past, but Barnett's a very different fighter than Rulon Gardner, so we'll see the matchup when the time comes.
It's going to be an interesting few months, and I'm definitely looking forward to it.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
UFC 81: A Final Note (Better than Expected)
I'll be honest, the fights that I expected to be bad weren't, and the two men I expected to go to war bored me to sleep.
In spite of the Eastman Martin snoozefest, UFC 81 was a great fight card. Frank Mir beat Brock Lesnar with a kneebar in the first round and Anotion Rodrigo Nogueira became UFC heavyweight champion when he choked out Tim Sylvia in the third.
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu reigned supreme at the top of the card and brought some sparks of hope back the UFC heavyweight division. We can only hope that solid matchups will happen in the near future, though they seem to be absent from many of the upcoming cards, much as they were before this event.
Personally, I'm excited for the next few events, much more so than I was for this one, and this one surpassed expectations. Hopefully the ones approaching will do the same.
In spite of the Eastman Martin snoozefest, UFC 81 was a great fight card. Frank Mir beat Brock Lesnar with a kneebar in the first round and Anotion Rodrigo Nogueira became UFC heavyweight champion when he choked out Tim Sylvia in the third.
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu reigned supreme at the top of the card and brought some sparks of hope back the UFC heavyweight division. We can only hope that solid matchups will happen in the near future, though they seem to be absent from many of the upcoming cards, much as they were before this event.
Personally, I'm excited for the next few events, much more so than I was for this one, and this one surpassed expectations. Hopefully the ones approaching will do the same.
Friday, February 1, 2008
UFC 81: Predictions
I'm actually a little excited for this card, as a whole. There are some fights that I expect to be duds, but there are some that I am very excited to see. My overall view of the fight card:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia
I'm going to be more or less an outcast on this one, because I'm thinking Big Tim will pull this out. I've given my reasons throughout the prefight buildup, but to recap, I just don't see Big Nog as being able to take this fight to the ground, and I definitely don't see him pulling this one out on the feet. It probably won't be exciting, but it will be long.
My Pick: Tim Sylvia by Unanimous Decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
After watching Lesnar's training on UFC All Access, I've changed my pick a little. Originally I had thought that Mir would finish this fight early by outclassing Mir on the ground, but now I think it will take him a little more time, and I'm a little more skeptical. I think Lesnar could pull this out, as he's more or less untested, but I'm going to go with the safe bet and give it to Frank Mir.
My Pick: Frank Mir by Armbar in the second round
Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
This may be the most promising fight on the card and while I think that Nate has the skills to win this fight standing up, I don't think he'll be able to handle Horn's experience and versatility. I also think that Horn is a very underrated fighter as a middleweight because he competes up in weight class so much, and so I'm going to give this one to the man from Utah.
My Pick: Jeremy Horn by submission in the third round
The rest are all up in the air, and my reasons for them are based mostly on skill set. I will say that they aren't of a whole lot of interest to me, and I'm a little surprised that some of them ended so high up on the card. I'll give my picks and hopefully they'll speak for themselves.
Ricardo Almieda defeats Rob Yundt by submission off of his back in the first round.
Gleison Tibau pulls out an exciting unanimous decision over Tyson Griffin.
Chris Lytle demolishes Kyle Bradley, hitting him hard on the feet early in the first but finishing him with a submission later in the round.
Marvin Eastman stops Terry Martin late in the third round with a big knee after what proves to be the most exciting fight of the night. Both take serious punishment.
David Heath beats Tim Boetsch in a boring decision that consists mostly of Heath laying on top of his opponent.
Keita Nakamura gets his first UFC win, stopping Rob Emerson with a submission in the second after trading with him in a back and forth first round. Nakamura will probably pull guard to get to the ground, but may get a solid takedown or even land a substantial strike.
This will be an interesting event. I'm not really excited about the heavyweight matchups on this card, except for the prospect of a good fight from Lesnar and Mir, which may or may not happen. I do think that Eastman and Martin will have the fight of the night, and that's a matchup that could go either way, because Martin has serious power and Eastman is a monster. Both have fought at 205 and both hit like trucks.
Hope this event doesn't end up being a dud, but even if it does head in that direction, there are a few fights on the card that will be interesting, and the prospect of a new heavyweight champion keeps the outlook better than it was for that division (though that may not be saying a whole lot).
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia
I'm going to be more or less an outcast on this one, because I'm thinking Big Tim will pull this out. I've given my reasons throughout the prefight buildup, but to recap, I just don't see Big Nog as being able to take this fight to the ground, and I definitely don't see him pulling this one out on the feet. It probably won't be exciting, but it will be long.
My Pick: Tim Sylvia by Unanimous Decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
After watching Lesnar's training on UFC All Access, I've changed my pick a little. Originally I had thought that Mir would finish this fight early by outclassing Mir on the ground, but now I think it will take him a little more time, and I'm a little more skeptical. I think Lesnar could pull this out, as he's more or less untested, but I'm going to go with the safe bet and give it to Frank Mir.
My Pick: Frank Mir by Armbar in the second round
Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt
This may be the most promising fight on the card and while I think that Nate has the skills to win this fight standing up, I don't think he'll be able to handle Horn's experience and versatility. I also think that Horn is a very underrated fighter as a middleweight because he competes up in weight class so much, and so I'm going to give this one to the man from Utah.
My Pick: Jeremy Horn by submission in the third round
The rest are all up in the air, and my reasons for them are based mostly on skill set. I will say that they aren't of a whole lot of interest to me, and I'm a little surprised that some of them ended so high up on the card. I'll give my picks and hopefully they'll speak for themselves.
Ricardo Almieda defeats Rob Yundt by submission off of his back in the first round.
Gleison Tibau pulls out an exciting unanimous decision over Tyson Griffin.
Chris Lytle demolishes Kyle Bradley, hitting him hard on the feet early in the first but finishing him with a submission later in the round.
Marvin Eastman stops Terry Martin late in the third round with a big knee after what proves to be the most exciting fight of the night. Both take serious punishment.
David Heath beats Tim Boetsch in a boring decision that consists mostly of Heath laying on top of his opponent.
Keita Nakamura gets his first UFC win, stopping Rob Emerson with a submission in the second after trading with him in a back and forth first round. Nakamura will probably pull guard to get to the ground, but may get a solid takedown or even land a substantial strike.
This will be an interesting event. I'm not really excited about the heavyweight matchups on this card, except for the prospect of a good fight from Lesnar and Mir, which may or may not happen. I do think that Eastman and Martin will have the fight of the night, and that's a matchup that could go either way, because Martin has serious power and Eastman is a monster. Both have fought at 205 and both hit like trucks.
Hope this event doesn't end up being a dud, but even if it does head in that direction, there are a few fights on the card that will be interesting, and the prospect of a new heavyweight champion keeps the outlook better than it was for that division (though that may not be saying a whole lot).
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