Big News in the UFC

There have been two major announcements made in the last 24 hours. First, the UFC announced the first bout for former NCAA champion, WWE superstar and professional football player, Brock Lesnar. His opponent at UFC 81 will be former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir, one of the top submission fighters in the UFC heavyweight division.

The second is the announcement of the return of the UFC's most contreversial title: the UFC lightweight title, when B.J. Penn will face Joe Stevenson at UFC 80 to determine the title holder. The UFC title has yet to be passed through the defeat of a champion, as the first champion, Jens Pulver, left due to a contract dispute, and the latest champion, Sean Sherk, was stripped of his title after testing positive for steroids.

Both of these matchups bring up an important factor in fights, it called "outs." Outs are the way in which a fighter can win a fight, and make looking at odds alot easier.

Lets look at the outs for the Lesnar vs. Mir matchup on groundhog day:

Mir (10-3-0) is a well known submission fighter. He has alot of experience in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has beaten larger fighters, like Tim Sylvia, by submission. Mir is expected to look for his chokes and joint locks. If Mir finishes, chance are it will be on the ground.

Lesnar (1-0-0) is a wrestler, trained in folkstyle and very athletic. He has two major outs. Lesnar will get into top position against Mir, that's pretty much certain. The question is whether Lesnar will be able to finish and win by groudnpound TKO, or whether he will maintain top position for three rounds and win a decision.

So Mir has one out, Lesnar has two. Having more ways to win is the best way to set yourself up for one.

There are always four major outs: TKO on the ground, KO standing up, submission or decision. Looking at things in terms of those outs, there's one that's missing. Who wins standing up.

Purely on the basis of Lesnar's recent transition and Mir's experience, I'd have to give Mir the edge, but only slightly.

So, with Lesnar's two outs, I'd give him the fight. Personally, I'll be rooting for Mir, as he's been injured recently and had a great first round kimura finish of Anthony Hardonk. Still, Lesnar's athleticism and matchup superiority, I think that Lesnar has an edge in this fight.

I'll go into the B.J. Penn vs. Stevenson matchup later, but that's just an outline of the concept of outs and a look at the outs for the Lesnar/Mir fight.