UFC 74: Results and Fallout

It's official, Randy Couture is the greatest champion in UFC history. Not that we didn't know that all ready, but at 44, Randy Couture finished his first opponent since coming out of retirement.

In his first title defense since winning back the title from Tim Sylvia, Couture stopped Gonzaga at 1:37 of the third round. He broke Gonzaga's nose in the first, and continued to dominate the massive Brazilian for the rest of the fight. I may not be one of his greatest believers, but the man knows how to put together a gameplan and execute.

Georges St. Pierre also won, defeating Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision. I expected St. Pierre to win in more overwhelming fashion, but Koscheck proved that he is in the 170 pound elite (though I still don't think he's as tough as Jon Fitch) and worth considering as a top fighter.

Joe Stevenson, Roger Huerta and Clay Guida won at 155 pounds. Stevenson by Unanimous Decision. Guida by Split Decision. Huerta by 3rd round TKO.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral returned to form to submit David Heath with a Guillotine Choke at 3:30 in the second. After his recent KO losses to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, I wasn't sure who was going to show up tonight, but Babalu is back.

Thales Leites put away Ryan Jensen with a first round submission and definitely earned some attention from the UFC brass.

However, the star of tonights show (and my big underdog pick on the card) was Patrick "The Predator" Cote. I've always considered Cote an underrated fighter and I was upset that Grove was given the Season Three title of "The Ultimate Fighter" after winning a close decision over Ed Herman.

Both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter series (Cote was runner up at 185 pounds on Season 4) were expected to bring the pain tonight. Grove stands 6'6, and so some people had trouble believing that Cote could land a substantial shot on him, but Cote demolished Grove and forced the ref to stop the fight at 4:45 in the first round when Grove could no longer defend himself against Cote's strikes.

Here is the impact of these fights on the divisional ladders:

Heavyweight: The was really no major impact tonight, except that things remained as they are. Couture stayed the champion and will defend against the next opponent. The only real change is that I think alot of people will be concerned about Couture, regardless of who his opponent is. Frank Mir reestablishing his presence and getting a win under his belt after his motorcycle accident is something big, too, and I hope we see him fighting tough competition again soon.

Lightheavyweight: Sobral put himself back in the mix, and I don't think that Heath will have his contract renewed after two consecutive losses considering that neither of them were to titleholders or top contenders. He'll have a fight or two in a smaller show and if he wins, he'll be back soon.

Middleweight: There was alot going on in the bulk of the division tonight. Cote and Leites were not considered top contenders, and I still don't really think they are. It was definitely a big win for Cote, because he believes that he should be fighting towards the top of that division, and I agree with that. I also think that Leites will be getting some bigger fights soon. I don't expect Grove to disappear, and I think that Jensen will have one more loss before the UFC lets him go. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them fight each other.

Welterweight: Since the only 170 pound bout on the card was St. Pierre v Koscheck, I can't say that the division changed enormously. I think that St. Pierre has established himself as the clear #2 contender, but I also think that, because he won a decision, the UFC will want him to have another warm-up fight before giving him the winner of Matt Serra (current champion) and Matt Hughes (former champion and #1 contender). I think that could be Jon Fitch, if the UFC wants the fight to be really challenging, or it could be Diego Sanchez, Karo Parysian or Joe Riggs, who GSP could beat decisively. Personally, I'd like to see Karo, because that would be a high profile fight and I think he deserves it, but I also think that Jon Fitch deserves a chance to fight a real top contender, so there's alot Dana White and Joe Silva (the UFC's matchmaker) have to think about.

Lightweight: Alot of changes as far as stock tonight. I think that alot of people considered Joe Stevenson a top contender for a fight with champion Sean Sherk, but I also think that Joe needed to finish Pellegrino tonight to establish that. (I didn't pick him to) It was a big night for Clay Guida, who got a lucky decision after losing an unlucky decision to Tyson Griffin. But the biggest night was for Roger Huerta, who is considered a major rising star in the UFC (he was the first MMA fighter to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, while I personally consider him somewhat undeserving of that honor). He finished Alberto Crane and I think that his name has been in the mix as a top contender for a while, but he could be more of an immediate contender since "Joe Daddy" wasn't able to finish his opponent. The third round TKO may have put Huerta in a position for a shot at the champ.

All in all, an exciting night. As always, some wars and some bores. Still, a worthwhile and well put together card. Now it's time to get ready for UFC 75.

My Picks for UFC 74: Respect

Here are my picks for the event tonight. I'll be following it from the west coast and either late tonight or tomorrow morning I'll have some information on what happened, why and the fallout that could be coming.

Randy Couture v Gabriel Gonzaga

My Pick: Gonzaga via submission, round 4.

I'm not a hardcore Randy Couture fan. I'm a Josh Barnett fan. I'm a Pedro Rizzo fan. I'm a Kevin Randleman fan (or at least I was before his loss to Shogun), but I'm not into Randy Couture. He may be the MMA prophet, but I have a hard time seeing him getting out of this fight in one piece.

Lets start with the standup, because every fight starts on the feet. I saw Gonzaga's fight with Fabiano Scherner. While Scherner's standup is complete garbage (him being known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills), I was still impressed with Gonzaga's heavy hands and very good technical skills. We are talking about a man who is coming off of a head kick knock out of the greatest kickboxer in MMA's heavyweight division. He has recently done something that only one other fighter in MMA history has done: he knocked out Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic. That said, while Couture outboxed Liddell, I have a hard time seeing him doing damage to a heavy handed, strong chinned fighter with the depth of a striking game that Gonzaga showed he had in the CroCop fight.

I also think this is a bad fight for Couture on the ground. Gonzaga is very good off of his back. He is a world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and is comfortable in every position. His submission game is aggressive and strong, the perfect kind of submission game to transition into MMA, much better than a calculated guy like Fabricio Werdum or Fabiano Scherner. Gonzaga's jiu-jitsu reminds me of a submission fighter I watched coming up in the PRIDE organization, the man who we be a short lived king of the heavyweights, but remains in the top 5 in the world to this day: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. A younger Nogueira, but still a very similar style of fighting.

Couture's only out in this fight is a decision. He's a smart enough fighter to do it, but I don't think he can put Gonzaga in a position where he can be finished. I don't think Couture has the submission skills and I don't think that his wrestling and striking are backed by the strength needed to finish a fighter as tough as Gonzaga.

Roger Huerta v Alberto Crane

My Pick: Huerta via KO in round 1.

I don't really care how good a fighter Alberto Crane is. I don't want to say that to sound rude. I'm sure he's an accomplished fighter, but the fact is, he's supposed to be a stepping stone opponent for Huerta, one of the guys that puts Huerta in position for a shot at Sean Sherk and the title.

While this is the year of the underdog, I think that Dana White and Joe Silva have picked this fight as a highlight reel finish for Huerta. I think they picked Crane because they don't just want Roger to win, they want him to destroy Huerta in style.

Huerta is, after all, the only MMA fighter in history to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and while there may be a curse on that spot in other sports, I think that this fight is sufficiently stacked in Huerta's favor.

Josh Koscheck v Georges St. Pierre

My Pick: St. Pierre via TKO in round 2.

I have said in other arenas that this fight is a complete load of crap. Those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, I will have a piece coming soon explaining exactly what I mean. To be short: I don't think Koscheck deserves a shot at St. Pierre.

While Koscheck beat Sanchez (who definitely did deserve a shot at a top contender), he didn't destroy Sanchez. He didn't roll over Sanchez like Jardine did with Griffin, or like Alexander did with Jardine. The fact remains that while Kos won the fight, he didn't do anything exciting, he didn't do anything different.

Koscheck likes to say that he is a dangerous fighter, that he has a fierce groundnpound and newly refined striking and submission skills. He likes to talk about it alot, but how will he display those skills against a guy who not only has good skills, but has great skills? I don't think that Koscheck is going to show up as prepared as he needs to be to beat a fighter as well tooled as St. Pierre will be. GSP came back with a vengeance after losing to Hughes. I see him doing the same after losing to Serra. Honestly, I don't mind Koscheck being his first victim.

Kurt Pellegrino v Joe Stevenson

My Pick: Stevenson via Unanimous Decision

I orginially picked Pellegrino, but after Franca's poor performance against Sherk I can't bring myself to put my money on Batman. Despite the personality and the breakdancing, in combination with the sick leglock in his last fight, I don't think he has the skills to beat Stevenson.

I am always willing to bet against guys coming out of Laimon's Cobra Kai camp, but after watching Stevenson beat Melvin Guillard (who was my favorite fighter in the 155 division) I'm not going to be against him. I'm going to credit Joe Stevenson with the wrestling and submission skills that he has, as well as constantly improving striking, and go ahead and say that I believe he will control Pellegrino on the ground to an unexciting decision win.

Patrick Cote v Kendall Grove

My Pick: Patrick Cote via knockout in round 3.

With the recent offing of TUF fighters by Jason MacDonald, I don't think that Grove's opponent in the finale (Ed Herman) is as tough as I once thought he was. With that said, I thought that Herman got screwed out of his decision against Grove. My opinion of the Hawaiian, though he trains with a great team in Punishment, is diminshing.

I also happen to think that Cote is one of the most underrated fighters in the middleweight division. My belief is that he lost to Lutter as the result of a bad matchup (a matchup I new he was going to lose from the start), but if Kendall Grove comes back strong, the way he did against Tito Ortiz (who beat him via layngay), I think he will beat Grove even earlier than I predicted, possibly mid-round 2.

Ryan Jensen v Thales Leites

My Pick: Silva via Submission in Round 1.

While there's alot that can be said of the up-and-comer Jensen as a belt holder in a smaller organization, the Victory Fighting Championship, there's nothing remarkable about his record. The only really notable fighter that he's stood in with is Brock Larson, who gave him his only loss.

Thales Leites got his first loss in his UFC debut against top 185 pound contender Martin Kampmann and, though he has been brought in late for this fight when Travis Lutter (Jensen's original opponent) could not fight, he's a very talented Brazilian fighter with great muay Thai skills and great submissions.

While Martin Kampmann picked Leites apart standing up, I think that Leites' Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu backround are sufficient for dealing with the power of Jensen, and Jensen's debut jitters will get the best of him.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral v David Heath

My Pick: David Heath via unanimous decision

Both are coming off of losses, but there's a difference. A few big differences.

The first is that Babalu lost to Lambert, who's not really a top flight guy (while I like watching my fellow Californian fight). Heath lost to Lyoto Machida, who some K-1 cultists consider to be the best 205 pounder in the world. I don't think that of Machida, but I think that he's alot better than Lambert.

The second is the way that they lost. Sobral was destroyed. Heath lost a decision. While it wasn't a close decision, there is only a much smaller psychological loss from not being finished. When you get utterly decimated the way that Sobral did, with a highlight reel KO, it's much harder to bounce back.

Sobral has a history of post-loss depression. While he rallied a series of wins after losing to Liddell, it was only after he regrouped during a brief sabatical. I don't know how Heath will bounce back, this being his first loss, but if he shows up with the typical performance he has put on, he should be able to use his wrestling skills to hold down Babalu for the decision. Again, not a fight I think will be particularly exciting.

Frank Mir v Antoni Hardonk

My Pick: Frank Mir via submission round 2

If I'm Antoni Hardonk, I'm praying that my opponent, Frank Mir, comes in the worst shape of any former UFC champion ever. I, as a fight fan, know better. If Mir is really in the kind of improving health that the UFC suggests, he will decimate Hardonk.

As a grappler, I was happy to get a look at Hardonk's jiujitsu and will inform you that, from a technical standpoint, it was mediocre. He was throwing his legs up and praying for a triangle against McCully, and it never came. Against a top jiu-jitsu fighter like the Mir who put a metal plate in former Champion Tim Sylvia's arm with one of the most vicious armbar injuries I have ever seen, I don't think that Hardonk stands a snowballs chance in hell.

That said, Hardonk can hide behind his impressive leg kicks and Dutch kickboxing saavy, but the Mir I am used to is aggressive and, tactically, very smart. He will be willing to put Hardonk in his guard (after seeing the Dutchman's jiu-jitsu) the same way he let Sylvia in. Mir's BJJ purple belt (at least that's what it was the last time I checked) is a deceptive rank because he's creative, he's quick and he's strong and if he get's the opportunity (and I think he'll make sure that he will) he'll destroy Hardonk on the ground.

Clay Guida v Marcus Aurelio

My Pick: Aurelio v Submission in round 3

Marcus Aurelio is a man of many faces. He finished Takanori Gomi (my second favorite lightweight, behind Joachim Hansen), but he isn't really a top tier fighter. Alot of people believe that Guida got screwed out of a decision against Tyson Griffin. I happen to agree, but I don't think a tough, well rounded opponent like Aurelio is going to offer him easy retribution.

I think that Aurelio takes this fight, if he shows up the way he did against Gomi. Guida is a good fighter, but he made some mistakes in the Griffin fight that Tyson's submission game wasn't really good enough to take advantage of. If he does that against Aurelio, he will lose.

Should be a great event tonight and I hope everybody enjoys it.

The Koscheck Conspiracy

My latest conspiracy in the UFC might seem trivial to alot of people, but if I were Jon Fitch, I'd be fucking pissed.

Joe Silva, Dana White and whoever else is responsible for those sort of decisions at the UFC set up the high profile matchup of former UFC Welterweight Champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre (13-2) v Josh Koscheck (9-1), one of the high-profile offspring of the Ultimate Fighter reality show.

While Koscheck recently ended the undefeated run of Diego "The Nightmare" Sanchez (17-1), I don't think that it's fair to give Koscheck his shot at the well recognized #3 man in the UFC Welterweight division (St. Pierre follows behind current Champion Matt Serra and former champion/UFC icon Matt Hughes).

Look at it this way, it wasn't so long ago that Koscheck was tapping out from a rear naked choke applied by Drew Fickett. While he has beaten some very accomplished opponents in Sanchez, Jeff Joslin (5-3), Jonathan Goulet (19-8), Ansar Chalangov (7-3), and former UFC Middleweight champion Dave Menne (39-15-2) since then, he stopped two opponents. Goulet submitted due to strikes and Chalangov due to rear naked choke.

In 5 fights, Koscheck has only finished without the help of the judges twice and has been remarkably boring, but who else deserves the shot at St. Pierre.

What about Jon Fitch?

Jon Fitch (14-2, 1 NC) has won his last 13 fights, 6 of which were in the UFC.

In his 6 UFC appearances, Jon Fitch has not been given any respect. Only recently did the UFC start to hail him as "the best kept secret in the welterweight division." Damn right he is, after all, no one else in the world has won 6 in a row.

Not only has Fitch kept his perfect UFC record of 6-0 unblemished when he beat very dangerous Brazilian Roan "Jucao" Carniero (11-6), submitting Jucao with a rear naked choke in the second round. While Fitch was dominated in the first, he showed resiliance and came back with a groundnpound performance that shocked everyone. No one gets out-wrestled in the first round and then holds their opponent down for that kind of an ass-whupping in the second, right?

Apparently, Jon Fitch does.

Fitch's other victories in the UFC include a submissions of top contenders Josh Burkman (8-4) and Luigi Fiorvanti (9-3) along with a TKO of Thiago "The Pitbull" Alves (11-3).

Not only does it look like Fitch should be fighting St. Pierre on paper, but even stylistically and from a fan's perspective, Fitch deserves that high card fight.

After all, Koscheck is a great wrestler, but he uses a lay and pray attack, which is why he has so many decisions. He is meticulous and slow when he's working, he's not explosive and he's not fun to watch. He also has really only displayed his one-dimensional wrestling.

While Fitch doesn't have the NCAA wrestling pedigree that Koscheck has, he does have a D-1 wrestling backround, and his standing, powerful ground and pound is something that is, honestly, really fun to watch.

Koscheck is a great, technical wrestler, but he doesn't stand over his opponents while hammering them with punches the way that Fitch does. He doesn't have aggressive attack skills, just meticulous and constant ground control.

Koscheck goes to a position than attacks, that's not what Fitch does.

In the eternal style of great ground and pounders like Fedor Emelianenko and Tito Ortiz, Fitch attack from anywhere. He passes guard while throwing strikes. That's his form of ground control.

This is all just me theorizing, but I think that Fitch's credentials and exciting skills make him a much better candidate for a position making shot than Koscheck.

I guess it won't matter, since Georges St. Pierre is going to beat Koscheck anyway.