To Silence Fedor's Critics (and to satisfy the curious)

Frankly, this is my definition of a fluke loss.

UFC 81: A Final Note (Better than Expected)

I'll be honest, the fights that I expected to be bad weren't, and the two men I expected to go to war bored me to sleep.

In spite of the Eastman Martin snoozefest, UFC 81 was a great fight card. Frank Mir beat Brock Lesnar with a kneebar in the first round and Anotion Rodrigo Nogueira became UFC heavyweight champion when he choked out Tim Sylvia in the third.

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu reigned supreme at the top of the card and brought some sparks of hope back the UFC heavyweight division. We can only hope that solid matchups will happen in the near future, though they seem to be absent from many of the upcoming cards, much as they were before this event.

Personally, I'm excited for the next few events, much more so than I was for this one, and this one surpassed expectations. Hopefully the ones approaching will do the same.

Randy Couture's Big News

Randy Couture is, beyond a doubt, the most successful fighter in the history of the UFC. He's held more titles than any other fighter and has a career that spans ten years and two weight classes. He's beaten Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell, two of the top champions in history at 205 pounds, and he's beaten heavyweight legends from Pedro Rizzo to Tim Sylvia. His career has been a rollercoaster and every fight, win or lose, has been exciting.

Couture has vacated his heavyweight title as a combination of age, conflicts with UFC management and #1 heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko opting to fight in M-1, instead of coming to the UFC.

The real question is what happens now?

Personally, I'd like to see a UFC heavyweight tournament on a large scale: ideally a 16 man competition.

The UFC heavyweight division is so cluttered right now that there's no way you can just have 2 top contenders. Here's a brief profile of the top guys and why they can't be considered the only ones:

Tim Sylva: coming off a disappointing loss of his title to Couture and recovering from surgery, his health is questionable at best. He's a legitimate striker, but as his performances had been unimpressive even before the Couture loss, it doesn't make sense to throw him right in the mix.

Brandon Vera: he will fight Sylvia at UFC 77 in a match that will show whether Sylvia is really back or if Vera is the next generation of UFC champion. Still, I don't believe that Vera is big enough, versatile enough or smart enough when it comes to fight planning to be a really solid heavyweight contender, and he has yet to really bet a solid top contender.

Cheick Kongo: while he beat Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic a little while ago, his ground game is still lacking and his loss to Carmello Marerro was not so long ago that it can't be taken into consideration. He doesn't match up well with wrestlers, and that's a fairly common breed of fighter in the UFC. I don't see how he can be considered eligible until he really proves his ground game.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: with only one fight in the UFC, it's hard to just let Nogueira have a go at the heavyweight belt. Even with his previous accomplishments, I have a hard time getting passed his passable performance against Heath Herring. I'd like to see him fight a few more times and really start to show some dominance before we put him up for a title shot.

Andrei Arlovski: he's definitely a top contender, but as he didn't finish Fabricio Werdum, who's standup isn't great, I don't think his form is quite up to where it was during his first reign as champion.

So where does that leave us?

I'd like to see a tournament because it will give these guys a chance to really prove they deserve the title and, if the matchups are done right, we'll get to see their games really tested on every level. It would also give some no name guys an opportunity to fight for the belt, and when that sort of motivation is on the line, the fights get a hell of a lot better.

We Can Only Pray: Fedor In The Octagon

When I say that he is the greatest fighter in the world, people think that's my opinion, but Fedor Emelianenko is the most feared and most dominant heavyweight in the sport of mixed martial arts.

I was reading an article on sherdog.com on Fedor's recent trip to the United States and his negotiations with the UFC, as well as a handful of other organizations.

Fedor's agent was mentioned (I don't know how reliably) as saying that their best offer so far was from the UFC.

To see Fedor in the octagon would be almost completing a phenomenal year for the heavyweight division. The resurrection of Randy Couture, Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira making their UFC debuts. All that remains is for the UFC to deal with Josh Barnett and Mark Hunt.

As a fan, seeing Fedor in the cage would be incredible, and it would be an opportunity to test the real abilities of the UFC heavyweight division that gets more hype than it deserves.

For those who don't know, Fedor holds a career record of 26-1-0, with his only loss coming by a cut delivered through an illegal strike. The loss would have been declared a no-contest under modern rules, but back in the dark ages of MMA, that wasn't how they ran things. He later avenged that loss by beating "TK" Kohsaka into a bloody mess.

I don't have any insider information on the dealings with Fedor, but I am hoping that he does end up in the UFC. It would be a huge step (the biggest so far) in the UFC's step to create the "Ultimate" heavyweight division and crown the greatest heavyweight in the world with the UFC heavyweight title.

UFC 74: Results and Fallout

It's official, Randy Couture is the greatest champion in UFC history. Not that we didn't know that all ready, but at 44, Randy Couture finished his first opponent since coming out of retirement.

In his first title defense since winning back the title from Tim Sylvia, Couture stopped Gonzaga at 1:37 of the third round. He broke Gonzaga's nose in the first, and continued to dominate the massive Brazilian for the rest of the fight. I may not be one of his greatest believers, but the man knows how to put together a gameplan and execute.

Georges St. Pierre also won, defeating Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision. I expected St. Pierre to win in more overwhelming fashion, but Koscheck proved that he is in the 170 pound elite (though I still don't think he's as tough as Jon Fitch) and worth considering as a top fighter.

Joe Stevenson, Roger Huerta and Clay Guida won at 155 pounds. Stevenson by Unanimous Decision. Guida by Split Decision. Huerta by 3rd round TKO.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral returned to form to submit David Heath with a Guillotine Choke at 3:30 in the second. After his recent KO losses to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, I wasn't sure who was going to show up tonight, but Babalu is back.

Thales Leites put away Ryan Jensen with a first round submission and definitely earned some attention from the UFC brass.

However, the star of tonights show (and my big underdog pick on the card) was Patrick "The Predator" Cote. I've always considered Cote an underrated fighter and I was upset that Grove was given the Season Three title of "The Ultimate Fighter" after winning a close decision over Ed Herman.

Both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter series (Cote was runner up at 185 pounds on Season 4) were expected to bring the pain tonight. Grove stands 6'6, and so some people had trouble believing that Cote could land a substantial shot on him, but Cote demolished Grove and forced the ref to stop the fight at 4:45 in the first round when Grove could no longer defend himself against Cote's strikes.

Here is the impact of these fights on the divisional ladders:

Heavyweight: The was really no major impact tonight, except that things remained as they are. Couture stayed the champion and will defend against the next opponent. The only real change is that I think alot of people will be concerned about Couture, regardless of who his opponent is. Frank Mir reestablishing his presence and getting a win under his belt after his motorcycle accident is something big, too, and I hope we see him fighting tough competition again soon.

Lightheavyweight: Sobral put himself back in the mix, and I don't think that Heath will have his contract renewed after two consecutive losses considering that neither of them were to titleholders or top contenders. He'll have a fight or two in a smaller show and if he wins, he'll be back soon.

Middleweight: There was alot going on in the bulk of the division tonight. Cote and Leites were not considered top contenders, and I still don't really think they are. It was definitely a big win for Cote, because he believes that he should be fighting towards the top of that division, and I agree with that. I also think that Leites will be getting some bigger fights soon. I don't expect Grove to disappear, and I think that Jensen will have one more loss before the UFC lets him go. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them fight each other.

Welterweight: Since the only 170 pound bout on the card was St. Pierre v Koscheck, I can't say that the division changed enormously. I think that St. Pierre has established himself as the clear #2 contender, but I also think that, because he won a decision, the UFC will want him to have another warm-up fight before giving him the winner of Matt Serra (current champion) and Matt Hughes (former champion and #1 contender). I think that could be Jon Fitch, if the UFC wants the fight to be really challenging, or it could be Diego Sanchez, Karo Parysian or Joe Riggs, who GSP could beat decisively. Personally, I'd like to see Karo, because that would be a high profile fight and I think he deserves it, but I also think that Jon Fitch deserves a chance to fight a real top contender, so there's alot Dana White and Joe Silva (the UFC's matchmaker) have to think about.

Lightweight: Alot of changes as far as stock tonight. I think that alot of people considered Joe Stevenson a top contender for a fight with champion Sean Sherk, but I also think that Joe needed to finish Pellegrino tonight to establish that. (I didn't pick him to) It was a big night for Clay Guida, who got a lucky decision after losing an unlucky decision to Tyson Griffin. But the biggest night was for Roger Huerta, who is considered a major rising star in the UFC (he was the first MMA fighter to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, while I personally consider him somewhat undeserving of that honor). He finished Alberto Crane and I think that his name has been in the mix as a top contender for a while, but he could be more of an immediate contender since "Joe Daddy" wasn't able to finish his opponent. The third round TKO may have put Huerta in a position for a shot at the champ.

All in all, an exciting night. As always, some wars and some bores. Still, a worthwhile and well put together card. Now it's time to get ready for UFC 75.

My Picks for UFC 74: Respect

Here are my picks for the event tonight. I'll be following it from the west coast and either late tonight or tomorrow morning I'll have some information on what happened, why and the fallout that could be coming.

Randy Couture v Gabriel Gonzaga

My Pick: Gonzaga via submission, round 4.

I'm not a hardcore Randy Couture fan. I'm a Josh Barnett fan. I'm a Pedro Rizzo fan. I'm a Kevin Randleman fan (or at least I was before his loss to Shogun), but I'm not into Randy Couture. He may be the MMA prophet, but I have a hard time seeing him getting out of this fight in one piece.

Lets start with the standup, because every fight starts on the feet. I saw Gonzaga's fight with Fabiano Scherner. While Scherner's standup is complete garbage (him being known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills), I was still impressed with Gonzaga's heavy hands and very good technical skills. We are talking about a man who is coming off of a head kick knock out of the greatest kickboxer in MMA's heavyweight division. He has recently done something that only one other fighter in MMA history has done: he knocked out Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic. That said, while Couture outboxed Liddell, I have a hard time seeing him doing damage to a heavy handed, strong chinned fighter with the depth of a striking game that Gonzaga showed he had in the CroCop fight.

I also think this is a bad fight for Couture on the ground. Gonzaga is very good off of his back. He is a world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and is comfortable in every position. His submission game is aggressive and strong, the perfect kind of submission game to transition into MMA, much better than a calculated guy like Fabricio Werdum or Fabiano Scherner. Gonzaga's jiu-jitsu reminds me of a submission fighter I watched coming up in the PRIDE organization, the man who we be a short lived king of the heavyweights, but remains in the top 5 in the world to this day: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. A younger Nogueira, but still a very similar style of fighting.

Couture's only out in this fight is a decision. He's a smart enough fighter to do it, but I don't think he can put Gonzaga in a position where he can be finished. I don't think Couture has the submission skills and I don't think that his wrestling and striking are backed by the strength needed to finish a fighter as tough as Gonzaga.

Roger Huerta v Alberto Crane

My Pick: Huerta via KO in round 1.

I don't really care how good a fighter Alberto Crane is. I don't want to say that to sound rude. I'm sure he's an accomplished fighter, but the fact is, he's supposed to be a stepping stone opponent for Huerta, one of the guys that puts Huerta in position for a shot at Sean Sherk and the title.

While this is the year of the underdog, I think that Dana White and Joe Silva have picked this fight as a highlight reel finish for Huerta. I think they picked Crane because they don't just want Roger to win, they want him to destroy Huerta in style.

Huerta is, after all, the only MMA fighter in history to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and while there may be a curse on that spot in other sports, I think that this fight is sufficiently stacked in Huerta's favor.

Josh Koscheck v Georges St. Pierre

My Pick: St. Pierre via TKO in round 2.

I have said in other arenas that this fight is a complete load of crap. Those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, I will have a piece coming soon explaining exactly what I mean. To be short: I don't think Koscheck deserves a shot at St. Pierre.

While Koscheck beat Sanchez (who definitely did deserve a shot at a top contender), he didn't destroy Sanchez. He didn't roll over Sanchez like Jardine did with Griffin, or like Alexander did with Jardine. The fact remains that while Kos won the fight, he didn't do anything exciting, he didn't do anything different.

Koscheck likes to say that he is a dangerous fighter, that he has a fierce groundnpound and newly refined striking and submission skills. He likes to talk about it alot, but how will he display those skills against a guy who not only has good skills, but has great skills? I don't think that Koscheck is going to show up as prepared as he needs to be to beat a fighter as well tooled as St. Pierre will be. GSP came back with a vengeance after losing to Hughes. I see him doing the same after losing to Serra. Honestly, I don't mind Koscheck being his first victim.

Kurt Pellegrino v Joe Stevenson

My Pick: Stevenson via Unanimous Decision

I orginially picked Pellegrino, but after Franca's poor performance against Sherk I can't bring myself to put my money on Batman. Despite the personality and the breakdancing, in combination with the sick leglock in his last fight, I don't think he has the skills to beat Stevenson.

I am always willing to bet against guys coming out of Laimon's Cobra Kai camp, but after watching Stevenson beat Melvin Guillard (who was my favorite fighter in the 155 division) I'm not going to be against him. I'm going to credit Joe Stevenson with the wrestling and submission skills that he has, as well as constantly improving striking, and go ahead and say that I believe he will control Pellegrino on the ground to an unexciting decision win.

Patrick Cote v Kendall Grove

My Pick: Patrick Cote via knockout in round 3.

With the recent offing of TUF fighters by Jason MacDonald, I don't think that Grove's opponent in the finale (Ed Herman) is as tough as I once thought he was. With that said, I thought that Herman got screwed out of his decision against Grove. My opinion of the Hawaiian, though he trains with a great team in Punishment, is diminshing.

I also happen to think that Cote is one of the most underrated fighters in the middleweight division. My belief is that he lost to Lutter as the result of a bad matchup (a matchup I new he was going to lose from the start), but if Kendall Grove comes back strong, the way he did against Tito Ortiz (who beat him via layngay), I think he will beat Grove even earlier than I predicted, possibly mid-round 2.

Ryan Jensen v Thales Leites

My Pick: Silva via Submission in Round 1.

While there's alot that can be said of the up-and-comer Jensen as a belt holder in a smaller organization, the Victory Fighting Championship, there's nothing remarkable about his record. The only really notable fighter that he's stood in with is Brock Larson, who gave him his only loss.

Thales Leites got his first loss in his UFC debut against top 185 pound contender Martin Kampmann and, though he has been brought in late for this fight when Travis Lutter (Jensen's original opponent) could not fight, he's a very talented Brazilian fighter with great muay Thai skills and great submissions.

While Martin Kampmann picked Leites apart standing up, I think that Leites' Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu backround are sufficient for dealing with the power of Jensen, and Jensen's debut jitters will get the best of him.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral v David Heath

My Pick: David Heath via unanimous decision

Both are coming off of losses, but there's a difference. A few big differences.

The first is that Babalu lost to Lambert, who's not really a top flight guy (while I like watching my fellow Californian fight). Heath lost to Lyoto Machida, who some K-1 cultists consider to be the best 205 pounder in the world. I don't think that of Machida, but I think that he's alot better than Lambert.

The second is the way that they lost. Sobral was destroyed. Heath lost a decision. While it wasn't a close decision, there is only a much smaller psychological loss from not being finished. When you get utterly decimated the way that Sobral did, with a highlight reel KO, it's much harder to bounce back.

Sobral has a history of post-loss depression. While he rallied a series of wins after losing to Liddell, it was only after he regrouped during a brief sabatical. I don't know how Heath will bounce back, this being his first loss, but if he shows up with the typical performance he has put on, he should be able to use his wrestling skills to hold down Babalu for the decision. Again, not a fight I think will be particularly exciting.

Frank Mir v Antoni Hardonk

My Pick: Frank Mir via submission round 2

If I'm Antoni Hardonk, I'm praying that my opponent, Frank Mir, comes in the worst shape of any former UFC champion ever. I, as a fight fan, know better. If Mir is really in the kind of improving health that the UFC suggests, he will decimate Hardonk.

As a grappler, I was happy to get a look at Hardonk's jiujitsu and will inform you that, from a technical standpoint, it was mediocre. He was throwing his legs up and praying for a triangle against McCully, and it never came. Against a top jiu-jitsu fighter like the Mir who put a metal plate in former Champion Tim Sylvia's arm with one of the most vicious armbar injuries I have ever seen, I don't think that Hardonk stands a snowballs chance in hell.

That said, Hardonk can hide behind his impressive leg kicks and Dutch kickboxing saavy, but the Mir I am used to is aggressive and, tactically, very smart. He will be willing to put Hardonk in his guard (after seeing the Dutchman's jiu-jitsu) the same way he let Sylvia in. Mir's BJJ purple belt (at least that's what it was the last time I checked) is a deceptive rank because he's creative, he's quick and he's strong and if he get's the opportunity (and I think he'll make sure that he will) he'll destroy Hardonk on the ground.

Clay Guida v Marcus Aurelio

My Pick: Aurelio v Submission in round 3

Marcus Aurelio is a man of many faces. He finished Takanori Gomi (my second favorite lightweight, behind Joachim Hansen), but he isn't really a top tier fighter. Alot of people believe that Guida got screwed out of a decision against Tyson Griffin. I happen to agree, but I don't think a tough, well rounded opponent like Aurelio is going to offer him easy retribution.

I think that Aurelio takes this fight, if he shows up the way he did against Gomi. Guida is a good fighter, but he made some mistakes in the Griffin fight that Tyson's submission game wasn't really good enough to take advantage of. If he does that against Aurelio, he will lose.

Should be a great event tonight and I hope everybody enjoys it.

Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera

The UFC recently announced the next matchup for UFC 77, an event that is gaining some recognition, because it already has the rematch between UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva and the man he took the belt from, Rich "Ace" Franklin. I have some specific thoughts about that fight, but since we're a few months out from that event, I think I'll wait a little while.

Everyone was worried that Vera (8-0-0) would leave the UFC over contract issues. His ego is already becoming well recognized (overshadowing his actual skill just a little bit). Vera, had he been fighting, might actually be in title contention, as he was probably a more well known fighter than current #1 contender Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga until Gonzaga fought and knocked out Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic at UFC 70. (Gonzaga fights Couture for the heavyweight strap tomorrow)

Alot of people believe that Sylvia (23-3-0) is washed up, that his last few fights have been unimpressive (they have) and that his career, or at least his reign as one of the great heavyweight strikers, is over.

I don't like either of these guys, and so I can't say that I'm rooting for anyone in this fight. Vera has a big mouth, and Sylvia isn't exactly the most respectful guy in the bunch.

However, I think that there's one major difference: Sylvia has fought and beaten top tier competition. He's done it many times. He beat Andrei Arlovski twice, he has a victory over Pedro Rizzo.

I'll give the in depth dimensions of the fight when we are leading up to the card, but I think that Sylvia, as much of an ogre (he has to cut to make the UFC's 265 pound weight limit) as he might be, he is a technical striker worth noting (watch his highlight reel KO's of Arlovski, Tra Telligman and Wesley "Cabbage" Correira if you want to see what I mean) with an enormous size advantage (he's 6'8 and 270+ in the cage to Vera's 6'2, 220), along with his experience will be too much for Vera.

I think Vera will be a great fighter in the future. He's got great Muay Thai skills and a good submission game, but Sylvia is a veteran, a warrior and a great striker and I expect Vera's notable undefeated streak to end at UFC 77.

Randy Couture: The Smartest

Sorry to whoever is readying out there in internet land, I've been gone the last two weeks. I apologize, but I'm back now and here's the new bit:

There are guys who can beat Randy Couture. I have a hard time seeing the current UFC heavyweight champion coming out on top of his upcoming title defense against the Brazillian behemoth of Gabriel Gonzaga.

Personally, I have Couture hanging around the #8 spot of modern MMA heavyweight fighters, but when it comes to knowledge of the sport, Randy Couture is the Alpha and the Omega. As far as I'm concerned, Randy Couture is the prophet of MMA.

There are alot of reasons you can find for Coutures intelligence: Division I education; world class wrestling pedigree and constant exposure to some of the best fighters in the world at Team Quest. He's the oldest title holder in the history of the sport (holding UFC Heavyweight hardware at 43), he has repeated his success in multiple weightclasses (Couture has held heavyweight gold 3 times and the lightheavyweight strap twice) and he has been a constant force in the sport, in and out of the cage, since the 90's, with every performance being a memorable one (everything from his victories over Tito Ortiz, Pedro Rizzo and his first win over Chuck Liddell to his losses to Liddell and Josh Barnett are well remembered by the hardcore fans).

Whateer the causes and the results, one thing remains:

Randy Couture is smart.

Whether he is knocking down a 6'8 striker with an overhand right, outboxing a legendary power-puncher or spanking a top groundnpounder, Couture is a force.

Will he beat Gonzaga?

Will he ever retire?

Will he ever fight a top PRIDE fighter?

I don't know, but I'll be watching.