UFC 81: A Final Note (Better than Expected)

I'll be honest, the fights that I expected to be bad weren't, and the two men I expected to go to war bored me to sleep.

In spite of the Eastman Martin snoozefest, UFC 81 was a great fight card. Frank Mir beat Brock Lesnar with a kneebar in the first round and Anotion Rodrigo Nogueira became UFC heavyweight champion when he choked out Tim Sylvia in the third.

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu reigned supreme at the top of the card and brought some sparks of hope back the UFC heavyweight division. We can only hope that solid matchups will happen in the near future, though they seem to be absent from many of the upcoming cards, much as they were before this event.

Personally, I'm excited for the next few events, much more so than I was for this one, and this one surpassed expectations. Hopefully the ones approaching will do the same.

UFC 81: Predictions

I'm actually a little excited for this card, as a whole. There are some fights that I expect to be duds, but there are some that I am very excited to see. My overall view of the fight card:

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Tim Sylvia

I'm going to be more or less an outcast on this one, because I'm thinking Big Tim will pull this out. I've given my reasons throughout the prefight buildup, but to recap, I just don't see Big Nog as being able to take this fight to the ground, and I definitely don't see him pulling this one out on the feet. It probably won't be exciting, but it will be long.

My Pick: Tim Sylvia by Unanimous Decision.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

After watching Lesnar's training on UFC All Access, I've changed my pick a little. Originally I had thought that Mir would finish this fight early by outclassing Mir on the ground, but now I think it will take him a little more time, and I'm a little more skeptical. I think Lesnar could pull this out, as he's more or less untested, but I'm going to go with the safe bet and give it to Frank Mir.

My Pick: Frank Mir by Armbar in the second round

Jeremy Horn vs. Nate Marquardt

This may be the most promising fight on the card and while I think that Nate has the skills to win this fight standing up, I don't think he'll be able to handle Horn's experience and versatility. I also think that Horn is a very underrated fighter as a middleweight because he competes up in weight class so much, and so I'm going to give this one to the man from Utah.

My Pick: Jeremy Horn by submission in the third round

The rest are all up in the air, and my reasons for them are based mostly on skill set. I will say that they aren't of a whole lot of interest to me, and I'm a little surprised that some of them ended so high up on the card. I'll give my picks and hopefully they'll speak for themselves.

Ricardo Almieda defeats Rob Yundt by submission off of his back in the first round.

Gleison Tibau pulls out an exciting unanimous decision over Tyson Griffin.

Chris Lytle demolishes Kyle Bradley, hitting him hard on the feet early in the first but finishing him with a submission later in the round.

Marvin Eastman stops Terry Martin late in the third round with a big knee after what proves to be the most exciting fight of the night. Both take serious punishment.

David Heath beats Tim Boetsch in a boring decision that consists mostly of Heath laying on top of his opponent.

Keita Nakamura gets his first UFC win, stopping Rob Emerson with a submission in the second after trading with him in a back and forth first round. Nakamura will probably pull guard to get to the ground, but may get a solid takedown or even land a substantial strike.

This will be an interesting event. I'm not really excited about the heavyweight matchups on this card, except for the prospect of a good fight from Lesnar and Mir, which may or may not happen. I do think that Eastman and Martin will have the fight of the night, and that's a matchup that could go either way, because Martin has serious power and Eastman is a monster. Both have fought at 205 and both hit like trucks.

Hope this event doesn't end up being a dud, but even if it does head in that direction, there are a few fights on the card that will be interesting, and the prospect of a new heavyweight champion keeps the outlook better than it was for that division (though that may not be saying a whole lot).

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir: Will It Be Exciting, Or Will It Flop

BROCK LESNAR SMASH!!!

Of all the opponents the UFC selected for Brock Lesnar, I'm happy they picked someone who wasnt just famous for getting punched in the face. It would have been too easy for them to pick a Cabbage Correira or some other guy with no ground game and just let him get demolished by Brock in order to build hype.

Lesnar said he wanted to compete against the top guys, he said he wanted to prove himself against legitimate competition, and there are few guys better than the guy who snapped Tim Sylvia's arm in half.

Frank Mir is was a warrior, back in the day. He had one of the most devestating submission games in the heavyweight division and some solid standup to back it up, but alot of people aren't sure that guy still exists.

Sure, he submitted Antoni Hardonk in his last fight, but there are Special Olympics judoka who could submit Hardonk blindfolded. While Hardonk trained some jiu-jitsu with Rickson Gracie leading up to that fight, I (like everybody else in the world) knew that his ground game was not going to be a match for Mir's. There's a reason for that:

It turns out that three months of jiu-jitsu is not enough to deal with a guy who's been doing it since he was 16.

The real question is, will Brock Lesnar's football playing, piledriver slamming athleticism be able to handle submission fighting. It's not like guys Lesnar's size haven't tried to fight in this sport before, coming in with a wrestling background and "unmatched athleticism."

Are we forgetting Bob Sapp?

Are we forgetting Mark Kerr?

Has Dana White learned nothing from watching both of their careers slowly drain down the toilet as fighters with blackbelts in real martial arts take over the sport?

Didn't he want the first four UFC's?

Apparently he thinks that Lesnar is the exception to the rule, a fighter who can make the leap from being an athlete with a decent wrestling background to being a fighter with a solid skillset and some credibility.


Mark Kerr is the one on the bottom, getting punched in the face.

While Sapp and Kerr held their own for a while (Kerr was ranked at the top of the sport for a few months), none of them had to compete with serious BJJ warriors until later. Sapp had to deal with it once he fought Nogueira and Kerr, well, Mark Kerr didn't need a BJJ blackbelt's help to fall apart.

The question is really whether Mir will let himself get overwhelmed and do what the Gracies' insist one cannot do in a fight, ever. Will Mir cave to the pressure of having a 285 pound opponent trying to shove those four ounce gloves down his throat?

I'm betting he won't, given his experience, but since Mir's motorcycle accident, I've been worried about his health and his ability to cope with the psychological apsects of fight prep. That said, I'm going to go with the veteran and the BJJ guy on this one because, well, he's the veteran and the BJJ guy.

Lesnar, on the other hand, will continue to flap his mouth, win or lose.

At least he's stepping in the cage, while Floyd Mayweather and Kurt Angle sit on their couches. Gotta respect Lesnar for that, even if he might bore us to death with a layngay like the world has never seen.

Big News in the UFC

There have been two major announcements made in the last 24 hours. First, the UFC announced the first bout for former NCAA champion, WWE superstar and professional football player, Brock Lesnar. His opponent at UFC 81 will be former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir, one of the top submission fighters in the UFC heavyweight division.

The second is the announcement of the return of the UFC's most contreversial title: the UFC lightweight title, when B.J. Penn will face Joe Stevenson at UFC 80 to determine the title holder. The UFC title has yet to be passed through the defeat of a champion, as the first champion, Jens Pulver, left due to a contract dispute, and the latest champion, Sean Sherk, was stripped of his title after testing positive for steroids.

Both of these matchups bring up an important factor in fights, it called "outs." Outs are the way in which a fighter can win a fight, and make looking at odds alot easier.

Lets look at the outs for the Lesnar vs. Mir matchup on groundhog day:

Mir (10-3-0) is a well known submission fighter. He has alot of experience in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has beaten larger fighters, like Tim Sylvia, by submission. Mir is expected to look for his chokes and joint locks. If Mir finishes, chance are it will be on the ground.

Lesnar (1-0-0) is a wrestler, trained in folkstyle and very athletic. He has two major outs. Lesnar will get into top position against Mir, that's pretty much certain. The question is whether Lesnar will be able to finish and win by groudnpound TKO, or whether he will maintain top position for three rounds and win a decision.

So Mir has one out, Lesnar has two. Having more ways to win is the best way to set yourself up for one.

There are always four major outs: TKO on the ground, KO standing up, submission or decision. Looking at things in terms of those outs, there's one that's missing. Who wins standing up.

Purely on the basis of Lesnar's recent transition and Mir's experience, I'd have to give Mir the edge, but only slightly.

So, with Lesnar's two outs, I'd give him the fight. Personally, I'll be rooting for Mir, as he's been injured recently and had a great first round kimura finish of Anthony Hardonk. Still, Lesnar's athleticism and matchup superiority, I think that Lesnar has an edge in this fight.

I'll go into the B.J. Penn vs. Stevenson matchup later, but that's just an outline of the concept of outs and a look at the outs for the Lesnar/Mir fight.

Brock Lesnar: I'm Biased

I have avoided talking about Brock Lesnar for a while, but it's been coming up so much lately that I figure it's finally time.

Dana White recently announced that the UFC will work on signing Brock Lesnar, saying that Lesnar probably should have started with the UFC instead of K-1. Given his wrestling backround and classic American smack talk, that makes sense, but I'm not happy about it.

I don't like Brock Lesnar. It's not a secret.

It's not that he's homophobic.

It's not that he used to work for the WWE.

Those are things that just bother me. I don't Lesnar because he has the biggest mouth in the sport, and he's only had one professional fight.

As far as athleticism and caliber of wrestling, Lesnar is great. He's a phenomenal athlete and he had a great career as a college wrestler, but he seems to think that he's some sort of mixed martial arts savant.

Apart from working with Royce Gracie (who has long since fallen off of his pedestal and was suspended after testing positive for steroids) and building up his ridiculous, creatined-out muscles, Lesnar passes his time by announcing that he should be fighting for the UFC heavyweight title.

In theory, every fighter should strive to be the best and believe that they deserve that belt, but Lesnar's smack talk is ridiculous for someone who holds 1 career win, especially when it's over a no name like Min Soo Kim (2-6-0).

Maybe if Lesnar beat a former world champion or a legend like Pedro "the Rock" Rizzo or a top contender like Mark Hunt in the first round I would be able to say "Okay, you should definitely be considered in the mix." Let's be real though, and look at the numbers behind Lesnar.

Brock Lesnar

Pro MMA Record: 1-0-0 (1 Submission)
Height: 6'2
Weight: 285 lbs

Firstly, when your professional career is a little over a minute long you should not be considering a title shot. Brandon Vera is 8-0 and has fought some legit opponents (most of them with winning records). Lesnar has beaten a 2-6 opponent. Why does Lesnar think he deserves a title shot?

Maybe it's because he has the biggest pecs. Maybe it's because he is a personality. Maybe it's because he played for the Minnesota Vikings.

From a technical standpoint, Lesnar has no standup. He's going to try and take down everyone he fights. That works against Min "Mr. Shark" Soo Kim, but if Mirko CroCop or Randy Couture is trying to take your head off then it's a little bit of a different game.

As far as I'm concerned, Lesnar has yet to make an MMA debut against a serious opponent, but if he intends to do that in the UFC, he better start losing some weight, because if he's really 285 solid then he's going to have to sweat a little bit to cut down to the UFC 265 pound cap.