My Picks for UFC 84

After watching the weigh-ins, I want to throw my picks out there, just as sort of a last minute lead in to the event. (we'll see how I do)

Christian Wellisch vs. Shane Carwin

NOTE: I think that this fight is going to be a great introduction to Carwin for UFC fans and while I'm worried that he may fail on the big stage, I think that he'll overpower Wellisch with his physical ability and his technical skill. He's also considerably more experienced that Lesnar and it's not like he's fighting a former UFC Heavyweight champion. Wellisch is good, but I think that he'll do exactly what the UFC expects him to: fold like a cheap plastic chair under Carwin's weight.

My Pick: Shane Carwin via Round 1 TKO

Jason Tan vs. Dong Hyun Kim

NOTE: This is one of two fights on the card I don't really care about. That doesn't mean it won't be exciting. I think Tan is gonna look for a submission, but I think that the grappling matchup is pretty much even. This is really a toss-up between new more or less unknown fighters (I've only seen about two minutes of Tan, and he spent most of that time getting punched in the face).

My Pick: Jason Tan by Unanimous Decision

Jon Koppenhaver vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

NOTE: This is the other fight I don't really care about. I find Koppenhaver's style of fighting not particularly endearing and there's nothing about him that I think makes him extraordinary. He's a middle of the pack fighter who happens to have been on a reality show. Yoshida has alot of cage experience, he's got some submission skills and some striking. I'm going with Yoshida from the little that I've seen, but mostly because I don't think that Koppenhaver is a great fighter, and I think that Yoshida may be the better man in this fight.

My Pick: Yoshida by TKO, Round 2

Rich Clementi vs. Terry Etim

NOTE: Rich Clementi has been on fire and has choked out two very tough strikers in Melvin Guillard and Anthony Johnson. Still, I find that I can't bring myself to bet on No Love, because he's only beaten strikers in the grappling game, and I don't think that he can do that to Terry Etim, who's a fantastic submission fighter. Etim is coming off a tough decision loss to Gleison Tibau, but I think he's got a great shot at winning this fight.

My Pick: Terry Etim by submission, Round 2

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura

NOTE: When you put two great jiu-jitsu guys or two great wrestlers in the cage, it becomes a matter of which guy has better skills in other areas of the game. In this fight, I hardly think there's any doubt that that is Sokoudjou. He hits much harder and can end this fight quick and hard if he lands a solid punch. Honestly, I think that's what he's going to do.

My Pick: Sokoudjou by KO, Round 1

Ivan Salaverry vs. Rousimar Palhares

NOTE: Ivan Salaverry is an underground legend in MMA, and so it's hard for me not to just pick him and be done with it. There are some who believe that he's on the last leg of his career, but I think he's got a few more left in him. He's fighting an opponent with great submissions skills, and so I'm not convinced that he's going to be able to finish, but I think that his UFC experience is going to give him the win on the judges scorecards.

My Pick: Salaverry by Unanimous Decision

Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes

NOTE: This is a no brainer. Mendes is a stepping stone opponent for Silva, who's going to be a title contender soon, and Silva is going to decimate him.

My Pick: Thiago Silva by TKO, Round 1

Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida

NOTE: I don't think that Machida's striking is as good as everyone says it is. He's illusive standing up, but he's hardly decimating all of his opponents with his hands. I think that Ortiz is going to put him on his back and once the former UFC champ gets on top, he's going to find himself in over his head with Machida's jiu-jitsu, which he's proved is very good.

My Pick: Lyoto Machida by submission, Round 2

Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic

NOTE: It's hard to be a jiu-jitsu fighter stepping into the cage against someone with better jiu-jitsu that you. Personally, I think that there's a reason why Goran Reljic is debuting this high on the card against such a high class opponent. Goran is a student of Roger Gracie, arguably the best grappler in the world, and he's a European champion at the purple belt level. The problem is that Gouveia's not a purple belt, he's a black belt, and there's a serious difference. I'll be cheering for Goran, because I think that a victory for him might play a roll in opening up talks between the UFC and Roger Gracie (a personal fantasy of mine), but I'll be betting on Gouveia.

My Pick: Gouveia by Unanimous Decision

Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine

NOTE: Alot of people are under the impression that I'm leaning towards Jardine in this fight because of Wanderlei's problems adjusting to the cage. Honestly, I still think that Wanderlei outclasses Jardine everywhere. He's a BJJ blackbelt and a world class muay thai fighter. I just think that Jardine is going to be in the cage and find that his opponent is a much better fighter.

My Pick: Wanderlei Silva by TKO, Round 2

BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk

NOTE: I'll be honest, I'm taking Penn in this fight in part because I like him. I think he's more fun to watch and a champion that wins all of his fights by UD is not something that I think should be happening in the versatile, explosive 155 pound division. Still, after seeing a slimmed down Sherk and a relatively ripped Penn at the weigh in, I'm very confident. There's no where BJ can't win this fight. He can submit Sherk off of his back or knock him out standing up, but we're all well aware that Sherk has one way to win. I think that the Muscle Shark is going to do exactly what he always does, and I think that Penn is going to hit him hard, shake him up and finish with a submission.

My Pick: BJ Penn by submission in Round 2

Top to bottom, this is a fun card.