My Picks for UFC 74: Respect

Here are my picks for the event tonight. I'll be following it from the west coast and either late tonight or tomorrow morning I'll have some information on what happened, why and the fallout that could be coming.

Randy Couture v Gabriel Gonzaga

My Pick: Gonzaga via submission, round 4.

I'm not a hardcore Randy Couture fan. I'm a Josh Barnett fan. I'm a Pedro Rizzo fan. I'm a Kevin Randleman fan (or at least I was before his loss to Shogun), but I'm not into Randy Couture. He may be the MMA prophet, but I have a hard time seeing him getting out of this fight in one piece.

Lets start with the standup, because every fight starts on the feet. I saw Gonzaga's fight with Fabiano Scherner. While Scherner's standup is complete garbage (him being known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills), I was still impressed with Gonzaga's heavy hands and very good technical skills. We are talking about a man who is coming off of a head kick knock out of the greatest kickboxer in MMA's heavyweight division. He has recently done something that only one other fighter in MMA history has done: he knocked out Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic. That said, while Couture outboxed Liddell, I have a hard time seeing him doing damage to a heavy handed, strong chinned fighter with the depth of a striking game that Gonzaga showed he had in the CroCop fight.

I also think this is a bad fight for Couture on the ground. Gonzaga is very good off of his back. He is a world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and is comfortable in every position. His submission game is aggressive and strong, the perfect kind of submission game to transition into MMA, much better than a calculated guy like Fabricio Werdum or Fabiano Scherner. Gonzaga's jiu-jitsu reminds me of a submission fighter I watched coming up in the PRIDE organization, the man who we be a short lived king of the heavyweights, but remains in the top 5 in the world to this day: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. A younger Nogueira, but still a very similar style of fighting.

Couture's only out in this fight is a decision. He's a smart enough fighter to do it, but I don't think he can put Gonzaga in a position where he can be finished. I don't think Couture has the submission skills and I don't think that his wrestling and striking are backed by the strength needed to finish a fighter as tough as Gonzaga.

Roger Huerta v Alberto Crane

My Pick: Huerta via KO in round 1.

I don't really care how good a fighter Alberto Crane is. I don't want to say that to sound rude. I'm sure he's an accomplished fighter, but the fact is, he's supposed to be a stepping stone opponent for Huerta, one of the guys that puts Huerta in position for a shot at Sean Sherk and the title.

While this is the year of the underdog, I think that Dana White and Joe Silva have picked this fight as a highlight reel finish for Huerta. I think they picked Crane because they don't just want Roger to win, they want him to destroy Huerta in style.

Huerta is, after all, the only MMA fighter in history to appear on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and while there may be a curse on that spot in other sports, I think that this fight is sufficiently stacked in Huerta's favor.

Josh Koscheck v Georges St. Pierre

My Pick: St. Pierre via TKO in round 2.

I have said in other arenas that this fight is a complete load of crap. Those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, I will have a piece coming soon explaining exactly what I mean. To be short: I don't think Koscheck deserves a shot at St. Pierre.

While Koscheck beat Sanchez (who definitely did deserve a shot at a top contender), he didn't destroy Sanchez. He didn't roll over Sanchez like Jardine did with Griffin, or like Alexander did with Jardine. The fact remains that while Kos won the fight, he didn't do anything exciting, he didn't do anything different.

Koscheck likes to say that he is a dangerous fighter, that he has a fierce groundnpound and newly refined striking and submission skills. He likes to talk about it alot, but how will he display those skills against a guy who not only has good skills, but has great skills? I don't think that Koscheck is going to show up as prepared as he needs to be to beat a fighter as well tooled as St. Pierre will be. GSP came back with a vengeance after losing to Hughes. I see him doing the same after losing to Serra. Honestly, I don't mind Koscheck being his first victim.

Kurt Pellegrino v Joe Stevenson

My Pick: Stevenson via Unanimous Decision

I orginially picked Pellegrino, but after Franca's poor performance against Sherk I can't bring myself to put my money on Batman. Despite the personality and the breakdancing, in combination with the sick leglock in his last fight, I don't think he has the skills to beat Stevenson.

I am always willing to bet against guys coming out of Laimon's Cobra Kai camp, but after watching Stevenson beat Melvin Guillard (who was my favorite fighter in the 155 division) I'm not going to be against him. I'm going to credit Joe Stevenson with the wrestling and submission skills that he has, as well as constantly improving striking, and go ahead and say that I believe he will control Pellegrino on the ground to an unexciting decision win.

Patrick Cote v Kendall Grove

My Pick: Patrick Cote via knockout in round 3.

With the recent offing of TUF fighters by Jason MacDonald, I don't think that Grove's opponent in the finale (Ed Herman) is as tough as I once thought he was. With that said, I thought that Herman got screwed out of his decision against Grove. My opinion of the Hawaiian, though he trains with a great team in Punishment, is diminshing.

I also happen to think that Cote is one of the most underrated fighters in the middleweight division. My belief is that he lost to Lutter as the result of a bad matchup (a matchup I new he was going to lose from the start), but if Kendall Grove comes back strong, the way he did against Tito Ortiz (who beat him via layngay), I think he will beat Grove even earlier than I predicted, possibly mid-round 2.

Ryan Jensen v Thales Leites

My Pick: Silva via Submission in Round 1.

While there's alot that can be said of the up-and-comer Jensen as a belt holder in a smaller organization, the Victory Fighting Championship, there's nothing remarkable about his record. The only really notable fighter that he's stood in with is Brock Larson, who gave him his only loss.

Thales Leites got his first loss in his UFC debut against top 185 pound contender Martin Kampmann and, though he has been brought in late for this fight when Travis Lutter (Jensen's original opponent) could not fight, he's a very talented Brazilian fighter with great muay Thai skills and great submissions.

While Martin Kampmann picked Leites apart standing up, I think that Leites' Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu backround are sufficient for dealing with the power of Jensen, and Jensen's debut jitters will get the best of him.

Renato "Babalu" Sobral v David Heath

My Pick: David Heath via unanimous decision

Both are coming off of losses, but there's a difference. A few big differences.

The first is that Babalu lost to Lambert, who's not really a top flight guy (while I like watching my fellow Californian fight). Heath lost to Lyoto Machida, who some K-1 cultists consider to be the best 205 pounder in the world. I don't think that of Machida, but I think that he's alot better than Lambert.

The second is the way that they lost. Sobral was destroyed. Heath lost a decision. While it wasn't a close decision, there is only a much smaller psychological loss from not being finished. When you get utterly decimated the way that Sobral did, with a highlight reel KO, it's much harder to bounce back.

Sobral has a history of post-loss depression. While he rallied a series of wins after losing to Liddell, it was only after he regrouped during a brief sabatical. I don't know how Heath will bounce back, this being his first loss, but if he shows up with the typical performance he has put on, he should be able to use his wrestling skills to hold down Babalu for the decision. Again, not a fight I think will be particularly exciting.

Frank Mir v Antoni Hardonk

My Pick: Frank Mir via submission round 2

If I'm Antoni Hardonk, I'm praying that my opponent, Frank Mir, comes in the worst shape of any former UFC champion ever. I, as a fight fan, know better. If Mir is really in the kind of improving health that the UFC suggests, he will decimate Hardonk.

As a grappler, I was happy to get a look at Hardonk's jiujitsu and will inform you that, from a technical standpoint, it was mediocre. He was throwing his legs up and praying for a triangle against McCully, and it never came. Against a top jiu-jitsu fighter like the Mir who put a metal plate in former Champion Tim Sylvia's arm with one of the most vicious armbar injuries I have ever seen, I don't think that Hardonk stands a snowballs chance in hell.

That said, Hardonk can hide behind his impressive leg kicks and Dutch kickboxing saavy, but the Mir I am used to is aggressive and, tactically, very smart. He will be willing to put Hardonk in his guard (after seeing the Dutchman's jiu-jitsu) the same way he let Sylvia in. Mir's BJJ purple belt (at least that's what it was the last time I checked) is a deceptive rank because he's creative, he's quick and he's strong and if he get's the opportunity (and I think he'll make sure that he will) he'll destroy Hardonk on the ground.

Clay Guida v Marcus Aurelio

My Pick: Aurelio v Submission in round 3

Marcus Aurelio is a man of many faces. He finished Takanori Gomi (my second favorite lightweight, behind Joachim Hansen), but he isn't really a top tier fighter. Alot of people believe that Guida got screwed out of a decision against Tyson Griffin. I happen to agree, but I don't think a tough, well rounded opponent like Aurelio is going to offer him easy retribution.

I think that Aurelio takes this fight, if he shows up the way he did against Gomi. Guida is a good fighter, but he made some mistakes in the Griffin fight that Tyson's submission game wasn't really good enough to take advantage of. If he does that against Aurelio, he will lose.

Should be a great event tonight and I hope everybody enjoys it.