Picking Winners

There's something that alot of hardcore MMA fans don't get when it comes to looking at the outcome of fights, it's something that even alot of fighters don't get.

When you are making fight predictions, you have to look at two things: what should happen and what could happen.

For instance: going into Gabriel Gonzaga vs Mirko "CroCop" Filipovic, Gonzaga could have KO'd CroCop, we saw him KO two of his other opponents in the UFC (Jordan and Scherner), but no one expected him to. When I was looking at the possible outcomes for that fighter I thought of it like this:

CroCop SHOULD win the standup.

Gonzaga SHOULD win on the ground.

Gonzaga was capable of finishing the fight in CroCop's arena, he had the power to do that, where as CroCop didn't really have a snowball's chance in hell at submitting Gonzaga or outgrappling him.

So:

Gonzaga COULD win the standup.

CroCop COULD NOT win the grappling.

People will tell you that anything can happen. Yes, anything can happen, but there's a reason why bizarre things tend not to happen. When I say what "could happen" I think of, given a fighters history, what he's capable of.

For those who watched the Couture v Gonzaga fight, you have to understand how hard a fight that is to bet on. Here's why:

Gonzaga SHOULD win the standup.

Couture SHOULD win the grappling.

But:

Couture COULD (and did) win the standup.

Gonzaga COULD (but didn't) win the grappling.

There's so much up in the air as to the dimensions of that kind of a fight. Both fighters can win in both places. My suggestion is to never bet more than play money on those kinds of fights, but always watch those matchups closely. They are the ones that are exciting because no one really has any clue what is going to happen until, finally, it does.