This is going to be a big year for the sport, but the way the sport is growing, it doesn't take a psychic, or even an analyst, to pick up on that, so I've decided I'll give you some specific points of things that I'm thinking are going to happen this year.
First, my picks for the etymology of the UFC division titles and what's going to happen to them over the course of the next 12 months.
UFC Heavyweight Title
Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera vs. Tim Sylvia is going to be an interesting fight, as the almost garunteed next fight for the heavyweight title. That said, I'd love to go with Nogueira on this one, but I can't bring myself to do it. While Nog has high quality boxing skills, his kickboxing is not at the same level as Sylvia's, and I don't think that Nog has the takedowns to bring this fight to the ground. Even he manages to pull guard on The Maine-iac, I have a hard time believing that Noguiera is going to be madly successful against the submission defense that Jeff Monson (a world submission fighting champion) couldn't crack.
Sylvia will return to the heavyweight crown, probably by decision, and I think the first matchup in store for him will be one with the French standup machine Cheick Kongo, perhaps the worst matchup for Sylvia in this division. I see Kongo taking that matchup easily, perhaps even with a knock out in the late third, early fourth round. Whether or not Kongo gets the title shot will have alot to do with who his next opponent is and how his new coach Juanito Ibarra helps him with his ground game. I think that his next opponent will probably be Justin McCully and Ibarra will be able to help Kongo use distance control and solid sprawling, along with Kongo's already well developed knees, to beat McCully into a bloody pulp.
With Kongo as the new champion, his opponent may end up being Brock Lesnar, depending on how Lesnar fares in two fights that will, in all likelyhood, test his ability to adapt. This will be an interesting fight, and this far out it's hard for me to say who I think would take it, though if Kongo shows the kind of grappling saavy I hope he will develop, I'd put my money on the Frenchman.
The other possible opponent for Kongo, towards the end of the year, is Andrei Arlovski, and I think Kongo takes that matchup too, as it is one that favors him very, very heavily. There's the possibility of Andrei using his sambo backround and taking the fight to the ground, but I think that Kongo's youth, athleticism and superior technical striking ability (which, at the moment, seems unrivaled in the UFC heavyweight division) will pull this one out for him.
Heavyweight Champion at the End of 2008: Cheick Kongo
UFC Lightheavyweight Title
This will be an interesting title, since there is really no solid top contender right now, even the man currently lined up for a title shot, Forrest Griffin, is not the obvious first choice. I think that Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, the current champ, will beat Griffin, either by late TKO or decision, and continue to hold his title.
As far as the next opponent for Jackson, that's an easy call for me. It would have to be Lyoto Machida. While Machida could always drop his next fight, which I see being against Thiago Silva, I don't see that happening. I see Machida pulling out the win and going on to fight Rampage. Once Machida gets in the cage with Jackson, I don't see this being Machida's matchup. While I do think Lyoto's strength is serious underrated, it's definitely not on the same level as Rampage's, and his submission skills are not as good as some of the guys that Rampage has beaten in his career. I see Jackson pulling this one out too.
For his final fight of the year, I see Jackson fighting a newly revitalized Houston Alexander. I think Alexander will explode back onto the scene and beat the holy hell out of his next two opponents.
This fight could be interesting, as they are both very explosive, ver powerful fighters, still, I'm going to go with Jackson, as we have now seen that Alexander is not as invincible as he once appeared.
Lightheavyweight Champion at the End of 2008: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
UFC Middleweight Title
The first fight for this title will be Dan Henderson vs. Anderson Silva, that we already know. I have said that I think Hendo will take this fight, and I'm going to stand by that. I think that his wrestling ability and his knockout power will really help to win this one, but I also think that his athleticism will be the major tipping factor against a fighter with an awesome skillset.
Whoever pulls this out will fight the next contender in line, Martin Kampmann, and I think that Kampmann will lose to either Henderson or Silva. I don't think that Kampmann has the striking ability that Silva does, and I don't think that his ground game is particularly impressive. He really loses to both fighters on all fronts.
After Kampmann, I see the next contender being the man who almost beat Kampmann when they fought at UFC 68, Drew McFedries. I think that McFedries, though, is the kind of fighter who will give Silva lot of problems, should Anderson remain champion, and I think that he's got a similar style to Henderson. I think that Anderson is in serious stylistic trouble if he fights McFedries, as McFedries can cause serious psychological issues for his opponents when they try to strike with him, and I see that fight staying primarily on the feet.
As for the matchup I think is more likely, that being Henderson vs. McFedries, I think that this will go an impressive five rounds, but I think McFedries will pull it out with his power and his aggressiveness. While I think Henderson could win this fight on the ground, I'm going to mix up the division a little bit and give it to the up-and-comer out of Miletich.
UFC Middleweight Champion at the End of 2008: Drew McFedries
UFC Welterweight Title
Georges St. Pierre vs. Matt Serra, the inevitable matchup to start the year off, will be an interesting rematch, but I think that St. Pierre has shown recently that he is a warrior and is determined to live up to the hype that he has been given as the #1 170 pound fighter in the world. I see St. Pierre beating Serra standing up, utilizing his superior wrestling ability to stay away from Serra's groundgame, and using his muay thai and karate skills to give Serra alot of problems, finishing this fight in the second round.
As far as the next matchup for St. Pierre, I think there are a handful of contenders, but I am going to go with a serious underdog as far as the contention line goes: Karo Parisyan. I think that people seriously underestimate Karo's game and that he will be set up with a shot against Matt Hughes, which will put him at the top of a card. If he does fight Matt, I see him pulling that victory out and getting lined up for a shot with the new champion.
That said, I see Parisyan dropping a fight with St. Pierre on the basis of St. Pierre having superior takedown skills, though Parisyan has a world class judo backround. I'd like to see this matchup and this it will go three or four rounds, but I think that St. Pierre takes it.
As far as the final fight for St. Pierre in 2008, I think his opponent will be a fighter who has been forgotten about a little bit in this division, since dropping a decision to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69.
I see Diego Sanchez working his way back into contention, getting a rematch with Josh Koscheck or a fight with Jon Fitch, and winning. Two or three fights, including avenging his loss, could put him in position for a title shot, and I think that it will, but, as with Parisyan and Serra, I see Diego losing this one, as St. Pierre is better at pretty much everything.
UFC Welterweight Champion at the End of 2008: Georges St. Pierre
UFC Lightweight Title
I'll keep this one simple, because I think this division is.
Like the rest of the sporting world, I see BJ Penn beating Joe Stevenson. When that happens, I see him dominating whoever gets pulled up to fight him.
Whether or not Sherk beats the rap for steroids isn't that important to me, as I think he will lose to Penn anyway. I don't think Sherk has the same submission defense as Matt Hughes and that the submissions Penn almost finished Hughes with will be the end of Sherk.
I see Penn holding the title against anyone he fights, because he's far and away the most versatile fighter in the division, and he's got the best standup and the best groundskills.
UFC Lightweight Champion at the End of 2008: BJ Penn
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment