My Thoughts on UFC 80

In light of the upcoming UFC pay-per-view, I thought I'd post my thoughts on the card. They can also be found on mmaforum.com with the rest of the release that the staff there will be doing. (Thanks to Trey from the forum for putting that together)

"The Prodigy" BJ Penn (11-4-1) vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson (28-7-0)
For the UFC Interim Lightweight Title

BJ Penn is by far the superior fighter and a long time staple of the sport, both at 170 pounds, and in this 155 pound weightclass. He's a top 3 fighter in the world as a welterweight, and I don't think that anyone will disagree that, as a lightweight, he's a force to be reconned with. While Stevenson has a credible grappling backround and some wrestling skills, all that will do is give him the power to pick his poison in this fight, because Penn is a world champion and genius in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has some of the best standup (if not the best) in the division. Stevenson will probably take this fight where he's comfortable, to the ground, but I see BJ finishing him there.

Result: Penn by Submission (armbar/omoplata), Round 2

Jason "The Punisher" Lambert (23-6-0) vs. Wilson Gouveia (9-4-0)

Lambert is one of the most powerful fighters in the second tier of the 205 pound division. While most agree that he's not on the same level as the big guns in the division like Rampage, Chuck, Silva or even Forrest or Jardine, he's where I draw the line in terms of who's part of the top, and who's in the rest of the pack. As far as Gouviea, I think Gouviea's just another guy in the 205 pound division, and Lambert has the strength and ability to power through him, much as Lambert has done with all of the other no-name fighter's he's fought, and even done to a serious veteran in Babalu Sobral.

Result: Lambert by KO, Round 2

Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga (8-2-0) vs. Fabricio Werdum (9-3-1)

While Gonzaga is coming off of a tough loss, so is Werdum, so psychologically I think both fighters are on the same playing field, even though Gonzaga was beaten in a bloody slaughter and Werdum only dropped an unimpressive decision. They're both trying to break the losing mindset. While it's important to remember that this is a rematch and Werdum won the first fight, the original bout came before Gonzaga had really stepped into the spotlight as a top fighter, and showed his versatility. I think that Werdum is going to have alot of problems with Gonzaga, because Werdum isn't famous for using his takedowns on the BJJ circuit, and Gonzaga has much more experience in that department. Beyond just their background as submission fighters, the last time Gonzaga stepped in with a fellow BJJ blackbelt, he demolished him. (that fight was with Fabiano Scherner) I see this fight going much more like the fight with Scherner, though perhaps being shorter, given that Werdum is much, much smaller than Scherner.

Result: Gonzaga by TKO, Round 2

Jess "The Joker" Liaudin (12-8-0) vs. Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (13-3-0)

Marcus Davis a great fighter, and Jess Laudin isn't really on the same level in my opinion. Recently, we've seen that Davis can do more than just box (which is the skillset he came into the sport with) and we know he's an athlete. I don't see Laudin being about to win this fight anywhere, so I'm going to stick with the heavy favorite in Marcus Davis, and I'm thinking he'll win early, either by catching Laudin with a stiff punch, or slipping on the guillotine, which has been the bread and butter of his groundgame recently.

Result: Davis by KO, Round 1

Kendall "The Spyda" Grove (8-4-0) vs. Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera (14-6-0)

I'm one of the few people who thinks that Rivera has a legit shot in this fight, but I don't think it's because Rivera is an underrated fighter. I think Grove gets alot of attention for being really, really tall. That's why I called him out before the fight with Patrick Cote, a fight that ended in him getting completely demolished. I think that Grove is going to have alot of trouble dealing with an experienced, saavy fighter like Rivera, who knows how to work around his reach standing and can avoid Grove's so-so BJJ on the ground. While Grove trains with Punishment, I don't think that the increasingly one-dimensional nature of the camp (which has gotten progressively worse since Dean Lister left) is going to help, given that I don't think Grove is a good enough wrestler to take Rivera down if he needs to, and I don't think that his freakishly high center of gravity will allow for that.

Result: Rivera by Unanimous Decision

Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout (12-3-1) vs. Per Eklund (12-2-1)

I like Sam Stout. While I think that his groundgame is suspect, I respect his Muay Thai skills alot, and I think that they present a serious problem for Eklund. I see Stout keeping this fight on the feet by keeping Eklund at range, and I don't see Stout having any trouble finishing without using the thai-clinch, which it's definitely in his best interest to avoid. This fight could go the difference if neither fighter wants to push the pace (Stout will keep it slow so he doesn't get caught, and Eklund may fall into that rhythm too), but I think that Eklund will get worn down, get stupid and get knocked out.

Result: Stout by (T)KO, Round 3

Colin "Big C" Robinson (9-3-0) vs. Antoni Hardonk (5-4-0)

I think Antoni Hardonk is one of the more underrated fighters in a division populated by seriously overrated sacks of crap. He's got a kickboxing background under Ernesto Hoost (one of the greatest kickboxers in history) and he's been training BJJ with Rickson Gracie, who gave him a bluebelt. I think that his Dutch kickboxing will be what takes this fight home, though, and he'll finish Robinson in similar style to his finish of Pendergarst in his first fight. I really hope this ends up on the pay-per-view, because people forget how much damage Hardonk can do with leg kicks, and they forget how devastating his hands are. I don't think Hardonk is as serious a force as a couple of the other great kickboxers in this division, but he's a helluva lot better than Robinson.

Result: Hardonk by KO, Round 1

Paul Taylor (8-2-1) vs. Paul Kelly (6-0-0)

Even in defeat, I was impressed with Paul Taylor, though I will admit that I think his ground game could use a little work. I think that he's going to be a good example for the way the British fighters are going to have to transform from their more-or-less pure kickboxing backgrounds into a more balanced style of fighting. That said, I think he's learned alot from his fight with Davis, and I think he knows that Kelly isn't going to present the same issues that Davis did in terms of a well rounded opponent with a high quality of striking ability. Paul Taylor did some serious damage to Davis in their fight, and I see him inflicting similar damage on Kelly, though I don't see Kelly fairing as well as Davis did, and I see him going to sleep early.

Result: Taylor by TKO, Round 1

Alessio "Legionarius" Sakara (11-6-0) vs. James Lee (13-2-0)

As has been alluded to, Alessio Sakara is a great boxer with a sh*tty submission game. While I see him having the advantage standing up, I don't think that his boxing background grants him the clinch skills or the lower body attacks (leg kicks, knees, etc) necessary to really keep his opponent at decent range. I see this fight hitting the ground early and Sakara doing something stupid, like leaving an arm out or sticking his neck in a guillotine.

Result: Lee by Submission, Round 1

Well, those are my thoughts on the card. Feel free to post responses.