A Note on Ludwig vs. Gomi at WVR

Everyone I've talked to seems to think that Gomi is going to win this upcoming fight against Duane Ludwig by falling back on his wrestling and submission skills, and I think that alot of that is a result of people's understanding of Ludwig's standup. I won't go deep into a technical analysis, and I will acknowledge that Ludwig is a very, very good striker, and has been for a long time.

The reality, though, is that Gomi is still going to have an advantage standing up in a way that I don't think alot of people are accounting for, because Duane Ludwig is thinking the exact same thing.

Here's what I'm saying:

If you're Duane Ludwig, you know that your opponent is a better wrestler than you, and a better submission fighter, and a better groundnpounder, you're going to work very, very hard to keep this fight standing up. You're going to anticipate that takedown, and be ready to sprawl, perhaps even more ready to sprawl than to bob and weave when Gomi starts closing the distance.

Gomi hits hard, and I think that if Ludwig is too focussed on the takedown, he's going to run into the same problem that we've seen guys who are predominantly strikers (most notably Mirko CroCop) run into before. Great strikers get beaten by better grapplers standing up because they are so afraid of hitting the mat that they neglect their standup. We saw it in CroCop's fights with Randleman and Gonzaga, and while I'm aware that Ludwig is a different person, it's important to remember that when he's in with that level of grappler, he may very well fall back to that mentality.

For those watching the World Victory Road event this Wednesday, I would like to offer this thought on Gomi's fight: If Gomi comes inside, whether with a shot or just looking for a clinch, and Ludwig starts to back away or prepare to sprawl out, be ready to watch Gomi's hands, because Gomi is the kind of smart fighter who is not going to force a takedown when he can land that knock out punch, and he has the power to put Duane to sleep.

I'm not saying that this fight won't end up on the ground. If Duane comes out ready to brawl, and shows that with the way he carries himself, we may see Gomi go for that clinch or that shot and take this fight to the mat either right off the bat or after feeling Ludwig out for a little while. But if Duane comes in tentative, don't be shocked if you see Gomi knock him out with a big punch, it's something he's got the ability to do, if given the opportunity.